The gap between advertised apartment prices and what buyers actually pay has widened to levels unseen in two decades. In Łódź, the difference reached 15.6 percent in the first quarter of this year – the highest since 2007. For the seven largest Polish cities, the average discrepancy was 11 percent, a figure that signals a fundamental shift on the housing market.
According to the latest data from the National Bank of Poland, the average advertised price per square meter of a new apartment in Łódź was nearly 11,600 zlotys in the period from December 2025 to February 2026. Transaction prices, however, averaged just under 9,800 zlotys – 15.6 percent less. Historically, the average difference between asking and transaction prices has been 6.5 percentage points.
In the seven biggest cities (Warsaw, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław) the average gap was 11 percent, while in ten other regional centers it stood at 7.9 percent. On a secondary market, where prices are typically lower, similar divergences have emerged.
– In Łódź, the price per square meter in new construction at the turn of the year averaged almost 11,600 zlotys – similar to a year earlier. In practice, buyers paid under 9,800 zlotys, slightly less than the year before. Transaction prices were therefore 15.6 percent below asking prices. Over the past two decades this difference has never been that large. The average since 2007 has been 6.5 percentage points – reads a report by money.pl.
A record gap in Łódź
The Łódź figure stands out not only because of its size but also because it represents a departure from the historical norm. In previous cycles, such a large spread typically marked the end of a cooling phase. The correction mechanism usually involved a rise in transaction prices, not a fall in asking prices.
The National Bank of Poland data covers the period from December 2025 to February 2026. For the seven largest cities, the gap of 11 percent compares with an historical average of 12.8 percent – meaning the current difference is slightly below the long-term mean. In the ten smaller cities the gap of 7.9 percent is also below the average of 9.1 percent. Yet in several individual markets the picture is reversed.
Secondary market also affected
On the secondary market, where apartments are generally cheaper, the divergence between asking and transaction prices has also grown. In Olsztyn, the difference reached 12.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an historical average of 6.8 percent. In Poznań it was 13.7 percent (average: 10.5 percent), and in Bydgoszcz 11.9 percent (average: 7.9 percent). These are near-record deviations.
Analysts note that a widening gap – especially when it surpasses long-term averages – is not necessarily good news for buyers. It often signals that the market is entering a period of adjustment where transaction prices begin to rise, not where sellers lower their expectations. In other words, the current situation may be the calm before the next wave of price increases.
The phenomenon has been absent from the Polish housing market for nearly twenty years. For most of the last two decades, asking and transaction prices moved in sync, with a relatively stable spread. The current divergence suggests that sellers are holding out for higher prices, but buyers are increasingly resistant – a standoff that historically ends with transaction prices moving up, not down.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Konoplytska / Shutterstock
