The European Central Bank raised its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in a unanimous decision. ECB President Christine Lagarde announced that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target only by mid-2027, as easing energy prices and a resolution of Middle East conflicts weigh on price growth. The new projections show a slower decline in core inflation than previously anticipated.
The rate hike, effective from the next day, lifts the deposit rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%. Lagarde stressed that no alternative options were considered by the Governing Council. – The decision to raise rates was taken unanimously, no other options were considered – she said during the press conference.
According to the latest Eurosystem staff projections, average headline inflation is seen at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is forecast at 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027, before declining to 2.2% in 2028. The ECB also lowered its growth forecasts to 0.8% for 2026, 1.2% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028, all based on a base scenario of a swift end to the war in the Middle East.
Prognozy i konsekwencje dla gospodarki
Lagarde attributed the improved inflation outlook to falling energy prices and slower increases in other goods and services. – Inflation should return to the 2% target by mid-2027 thanks to falling energy prices and a slowdown in other price growth – she added. However, she warned that high interest rates will remain in place for an extended period to ensure price stability. The ECB’s projections assume that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will ease, which would lower oil prices and reduce food cost pressures.
The revised growth figures indicate a sluggish recovery. The euro zone economy is expected to expand by only 0.8% this year, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, partly reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties.
Reakcje rynków finansowych
Financial markets reacted to the news with a drop in commodity prices. Gold fell to $4,094.60 per ounce, while Brent crude oil for July delivery was trading at $92.41 per barrel. The interest rate hike was widely expected, but the cautious outlook for growth and inflation kept investors on edge. The ECB’s guidance suggests that rates are likely to remain elevated until inflation is convincingly on track toward the 2% target.
Overall, the central bank remains committed to fighting inflation, even at the cost of slower economic growth. The path back to low inflation is longer than previously thought, requiring patience from both policymakers and markets.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Christopher Neundorf/EPA/PAP
