The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest financial forecast for the airline industry, predicting a net profit of $23 billion for 2026. That is roughly half the $41 billion previously estimated and also about half the $45 billion expected for 2025.
The sharp revision is driven primarily by a 70% surge in jet fuel prices, which has pushed the fuel share of operating costs from 25.4% to 31.4%. IATA now expects carriers to earn just $4.50 per passenger, down from $9.10 in 2025.
Global passenger numbers are forecast to reach 5.1 billion in 2026, up 2.4% from last year, while the load factor is expected to hit a record 84%. Despite these volume gains, profitability is being squeezed by rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
Middle East carriers face losses, others see weaker profits
All regions except the Middle East are expected to remain profitable in 2026, though with significantly weaker results than in 2025. Middle Eastern airlines, hit by the closure of airspace during the regional conflict, are projected to post a collective net loss.
– The gap once again underscores the structural weakness of the airline industry, where shocks to profitability quickly erode capital efficiency – wrote IATA in the report.
– All airlines are feeling the effects of the sharp 70% increase in jet fuel prices. Some additional costs are recovered through pricing adjustments and efficiency gains, but this is not enough to maintain last year’s profitability. The situation is especially difficult for smaller carriers that entered the year with weak balance sheets – said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.
Return on invested capital is expected to fall to 4.3%, compared with 6.6% in 2025.
Sustainable aviation fuel production still lags
Global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is forecast to reach about 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, meeting just 0.8% of total jet fuel demand. Under the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, suppliers are required to increase the SAF blend from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050.
– SAF production is again disappointing. With each year of ineffective government policies and a clear lack of interest from oil companies, achieving our goal of covering 65% of our fuel needs by 2050 becomes harder – said Walsh.
– The current energy shock should spur development of renewable energy, including the SAF we need. But so far, neither this shock, nor the need for energy independence and job creation, nor the need to mitigate climate change, has translated into the incentives needed to build a real system facilitating SAF production – added Walsh.
IATA emphasised that while demand for air travel remains strong, the industry’s structural vulnerability to fuel price shocks and high capital intensity continue to limit long-term profitability.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock.com/Piotr Mitelski
