The Strait of Hormuz, long feared to be effectively blocked, is seeing a surge in maritime traffic. Tankers and LNG carriers are once again passing through, carrying millions of barrels of oil and gas to global markets.
Evidence is mounting that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer holding. Iraqi oil exports from the port of Basra have jumped dramatically, with 7 million barrels pumped onto tankers in just the first ten days of this month – more than in all of April and May combined. Such activity would be pointless if the vessels had no way out of the Persian Gulf.
Separately, three LNG carriers that had disappeared from satellite tracking weeks ago have reappeared far out at sea, heading for Pakistan, India and Southeast Asia. The ships had switched off their transponders while in the Gulf, a common tactic to avoid detection, and are now showing as underway to their destinations.
Iraqi oil exports signal reopening
The jump in Basra’s loading rates is perhaps the strongest indirect proof that the strait is passable. In April and May the port was nearly idle, as tanker owners feared interception. Now the flow has resumed, suggesting that either the naval blockade has been lifted or that vessels are finding a way through.
Kuwait has also resumed offering crude to Asian buyers, after weeks of silence. Market sources say spot premiums have already started to fall, indicating that supply is returning.
LNG carriers reach Asian markets
Data from LSEG and Kpler show that three Qatari and Emirati LNG carriers that vanished from tracking in late May have now switched their transponders back on. One is approaching Pakistan, another is off the coast of India, and the third is en route to Singapore. Together they carry enough gas to supply millions of homes for a month.
This undermines the narrative of a total blockade. – The fact that these ships made it through without any announcement suggests the strait is effectively open – said a trader at a European energy firm, who asked not to be named.
Trump’s claims gain credibility
US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that over 200 commercial vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz with American assistance, delivering more than 100 million barrels of crude to world markets. While Trump is often dismissed by traders, this time his numbers align with the data from Basra and the LNG movements.
– I think he was telling the truth – commented an analyst at a London-based consultancy. – You don’t get that kind of loading spike in Iraq unless ships are able to leave. The circumstantial evidence is overwhelming.
Nevertheless, many market participants remain cautious. Insurance premiums for tankers calling at Iranian and Gulf ports have not yet come down, and some shipping companies still refuse to send vessels into the area without naval escort. However, the trend is clear: the blockade is crumbling.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would have profound implications for global energy prices, especially for Europe and Asia, which rely heavily on Gulf oil and LNG. If the passage is fully secured, the recent price spikes could reverse quickly.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. Shutterstock/GreenOak
