The wave of Ukrainian workers that has dominated Poland’s labor market for years is receding. As tens of thousands head for Western Europe, employers are turning to migrants from Asia and South America, with about 30,000 citizens of Colombia and the Philippines now employed in the country. Experts warn that even after the war ends, a return to pre-2022 patterns will be difficult.
Poland’s foreign workforce has grown sixfold since 2015, exceeding 1.17 million people according to SW Research. While Ukrainians still form the largest group – around 779,000 registered in the social security system in September 2024 – their share is shrinking. In the first half of 2024, over 173,000 work permits were issued, most of them to citizens of Asian and South American countries.
The shifting demographics of Poland’s workforce
The process is already visible in industries that rely heavily on foreign labor. Manufacturing, warehousing, and machine operation are the sectors with the highest demand for immigrant workers. Companies that once recruited almost exclusively in Ukraine now hire from Colombia, the Philippines, and other distant markets.
– The process of replacing some Ukrainian workers with foreigners from other regions of the world is already underway – said Michał Solecki, President of Worksol Group. – Even after the war ends, many Ukrainians may have difficulty returning to the Polish labor market – he added.
New workers from Asia and South America fill the gaps
Poland now employs an estimated 30,000 citizens of Colombia and the Philippines. These workers are increasingly visible in logistics, food processing, and construction. Their average pay is about 10% above the national minimum wage, according to Solecki.
The shift is driven by push factors from Ukraine – higher wages in Germany, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands – and by Poland’s own labor shortages. Employers who have invested in onboarding workers from distant countries are unlikely to abandon them even if Ukrainian candidates become available again.
Prospects for a difficult return
For Ukrainians who left Poland for Western Europe, the path back is narrowing. Firms have built relationships and administrative processes around new hires from Asia and South America. The emotional and economic cost of reversing these changes would be high.
– Companies that already employ people from Asia or South America will not be inclined to give up those workers just to reopen positions for Ukrainians – Solecki added.
The trend is clear: Poland’s labor market is diversifying faster than expected. While Ukrainians remain the largest single nationality among foreign workers, their dominance is fading. The country that once relied on its eastern neighbor for hands is now looking much further afield.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock/Claudio Divizia
