The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, may soon lose its strategic importance. Iran’s leverage over this waterway, described by Finland’s president as a „nuclear weapon” in Tehran’s hands, is being systematically eroded by a wave of new land-based transport corridors.
The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran has sent shockwaves through global trade. Tehran has increasingly threatened to block the strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and nearly a fifth of its liquefied natural gas once flowed. Finnish President Alexander Stubb called the strait „a nuclear weapon in Iran’s hands” in April, underscoring the danger.
Insurance costs for vessels transiting the area have skyrocketed. War risk premiums, which stood at around 0.25% of a ship’s value per voyage before the crisis, now reach up to 3% in high-risk zones. Polices have become up to 1,000% more expensive, pushing shippers to seek alternative routes.
New land corridors emerge
Saudi Arabia is leading the charge to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The kingdom already operates the East-West Petroline, a 1,200-km pipeline capable of moving 7 million barrels of crude daily from its eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Now, Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has designed a new 1,700-km rail corridor linking the port of Dammam on the Gulf to the Jordanian border at Al-Haditha, passing through Riyadh and Al-Zabirah. This route would allow goods to travel overland to eastern Mediterranean countries, reducing reliance on the Gulf.
Iraq and Syria have signed a U.S.-backed agreement to revive the long-dormant Kirkuk–Banias oil pipeline. The project, estimated at $4.5-$8 billion, would give Iraq a direct export route to the Mediterranean, bypassing the strait entirely. A consortium including Chevron, TI Capital, and Qatar’s UCC Holding will handle the construction. The pipeline has been inactive for two decades due to wars and sanctions.
The United Arab Emirates also has an alternative: the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, which can carry up to 1.8 million barrels per day from Abu Dhabi’s oilfields to the port of Fujairah, located east of the strait on the Gulf of Oman. – The UAE followed a similar approach to Saudi Arabia, though on a smaller scale, diverting part of their exports away from the Strait of Hormuz – noted Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy.
Post-war revival of Syria and Iraq
The shift toward land routes could breathe new life into war-torn Syria and Iraq. Former Polish ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Krzysztof Płomiński, observed that interest in Syria is driven by the perception that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb requires accelerating construction of land corridors across the Arabian Peninsula, leading to Mediterranean ports, including those in Syria. – Already implemented and planned at express speed, with financial support from Arab Gulf monarchies, these corridors are a precondition for further development and a stabilizing, integrating factor for the region, including Israel – he said.
Saudi companies are already operating over 100 investment projects in Syria worth about $6.9 billion, covering infrastructure, energy, telecoms, cement, and real estate. France has allocated $260 million to rebuild the port of Latakia, while the U.S. is building two solar farms. Iraq, long isolated after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the rise of ISIS, sees the pipeline and rail projects as a path back to the global economy.
For Europe, these developments are critical. The traditional maritime route via the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab strait on the Red Sea has become increasingly perilous. Land alternatives, especially for oil and gas, offer a way to reduce vulnerability to Iranian threats and ensure energy security. The new infrastructure, though costly and time-consuming, represents a genuine shift in the geopolitics of energy transport.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH / PAP
