The Strait of Hormuz, long used by Tehran as a lever of economic pressure, is gradually losing its strategic importance. New land and pipeline corridors bypassing the bottleneck are taking shape, potentially stripping Iran of its most potent economic weapon.
According to a report from the WNP.PL portal, the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran has pushed the Islamic Republic to increasingly treat the strait as an instrument of blackmail. Finnish President Alexander Stubb went as far as calling the waterway a „nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran” earlier this year. Before the crisis, roughly 20-21 million barrels of oil per day and nearly one-fifth of global LNG supplies passed through the strait.
The full reopening of the strait is one of Washington’s key demands for any future peace deal. For Iran, however, maintaining control over this chokepoint is not only about pressuring the U.S. but also about influencing major exporters like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, as well as consumers in East Asia and Europe.
New pipeline bypasses the Gulf
One of the most tangible alternatives is the revival of the Kirkuk–Banias pipeline. Iraq and Syria signed an agreement in Washington to reactivate this dormant export route, supported by a consortium including Chevron, TI Capital and Qatar’s UCC Holding. The estimated cost ranges from $4.5 to $8 billion. The pipeline would allow Iraqi oil to reach the Mediterranean coast, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
– Iraq currently ships all its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, so this project is a game-changer for them – noted Krzysztof Płomiński, former Polish ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is expanding its land-based alternatives. The kingdom already operates the East-West Petroline, a 1,200 km pipeline capable of moving up to 7 million barrels per day from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Riyadh is also pushing forward with a major rail corridor project.
Land bridges and railway corridors
The Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has designed a 1,700 km freight line linking the port of Dammam on the Gulf with Al-Haditha at the Jordanian border. The line will pass through Riyadh and Al-Zabirah, enabling goods to reach the Eastern Mediterranean by land, bypassing the volatile waters of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
– Syria and Iraq may return to the map of global trade after years of isolation. Over a hundred Saudi projects worth $6.9 billion are already underway in Syria, covering infrastructure, energy and real estate – ambassador Płomiński added. France has allocated $260 million to rebuild the port of Latakia, while the U.S. is building two solar farms there.
The UAE already has a smaller-scale bypass: the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline can transport up to 1.8 million barrels per day from Abu Dhabi’s inland fields to a terminal outside the strait. According to Dr. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, the UAE followed Saudi Arabia’s lead, albeit on a smaller scale, redirecting a portion of its exports away from Hormuz.
Insurance costs in the region have skyrocketed. Before the crisis, war risk premiums were around 0.25% of a vessel’s value per voyage; now in high-risk zones they reach up to 3%. Many insurers have already cancelled policies for carriers operating in the area.
While the United States is largely energy independent and would not suffer direct supply disruptions, higher global oil prices would still be felt by American consumers. For Europe and Asia, the emerging alternatives to the strait mean a slow but steady reduction of their vulnerability to Iranian threats.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
