After nearly four months of blockade, the first Saudi oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the situation remains extremely fragile, with Iran still controlling the waterway and a permanent peace deal far from certain. The temporary reopening, agreed under a 60-day memorandum between the United States and Iran, has already seen violations on both sides.
The sudden reopening of the strait lowered the price of Brent crude from 120 dollars per barrel in March to around 70 dollars. According to data from the Windward portal, only 41 ships passed through the strait on June 30 and July 1 combined – 24 inbound and 17 outbound. Before the conflict, an average of 60 vessels transited daily. Around 450 ships are still waiting in the Persian Gulf, held back by skyrocketing war risk insurance premiums, which now reach up to 3 percent of a vessel’s value per voyage – up from 0.25 percent before the crisis.
A fragile reopening
The first five supertankers loaded with Saudi crude left the port of Ras Tanura and successfully crossed the strait. This was possible thanks to a temporary memorandum signed by Washington and Tehran nearly two weeks ago. The agreement gives both sides 60 days to negotiate a final peace treaty covering Iran’s nuclear program, the status of the strait, and US sanctions. From the start, the deal has been questioned. The US has threatened to resume attacks, while Iran has de facto full control over the waterway.
– Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and nothing seems to change that – said Prof. Daniel Boćkowski from the University of Białystok. – The Americans are completely ineffective in this area. Recently a ship tried to follow US instructions and was attacked. All other shipowners see clearly that passage is possible only on Iran’s terms. Iran took over this transport corridor and the chances of Washington pushing back are minimal.
According to Prof. Boćkowski, Iran’s actions may encourage other countries near key transport chokepoints to follow suit, potentially marking the end of free navigation worldwide.
Geopolitical chess game
Former Polish ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Krzysztof Płomiński, holds a more cautious view. He believes the 60-day memorandum is still being refined, even if both sides violate it temporarily. – The two-month period will be full of friction between the parties. In principle, even with some violations, we must assume the agreement will be implemented. What happens after eight weeks I cannot say. But if it returns to armed conflict, it will bring back all the demons that threatened a global economic catastrophe – Płomiński said.
Płomiński added that Iran is currently ready to restore free passage and committed to doing so in the memorandum. However, technical resumption takes time, and if the US or Israel continue violations in Lebanon, Iran will react decisively. An additional complication is Oman’s declaration that it wants to charge transit fees for ships passing through its territorial waters. Oman, traditionally cautious, is trying not to provoke Washington – President Trump has already threatened attacks if Muscat goes too far.
The situation remains highly unstable. The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is a lifeline for the global economy, but the path to a lasting solution is full of pitfalls. For now, the world watches and waits.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. PAP/Abedin Taherkenareh
