Global solar photovoltaic installations hit a new record of 664 GW in 2025, but the annual growth rate slowed to 12% from 32% a year earlier. According to the most likely scenario from SolarPower Europe, 2026 will bring the first global decline in yearly PV capacity additions in over two decades, with installations expected to fall by 8% to around 612 GW.
The report “Global Solar Market Outlook 2026–2030” shows that the solar boom of recent years is entering a new phase. While 664 GW was installed in 2025 – another all-time high – the 12% growth rate marks a sharp deceleration. The slowdown is driven mainly by policy changes in China, the dominant market, and by increasing instances of negative electricity prices in mature solar markets, which dampen incentives for new projects.
China remained the undisputed leader, adding 382 GW in 2025 – 57% of the global total. India overtook the United States to become the second-largest market with 45.7 GW (+49% year-on-year), while the US slipped to third place with 43.2 GW, a decline from 2024. Together, just ten countries accounted for 82% of all new solar capacity installed last year.
First annual drop in over 20 years
The predicted 8% fall in 2026 to 612 GW would be a historic first. The last time global annual PV installations shrank was in the early 2000s, when the market was a fraction of its current size. The contraction is largely attributed to China, where adjustments in subsidy policies and grid integration challenges are expected to curb new capacity. At the same time, mature markets in Europe and elsewhere are struggling with negative wholesale electricity prices during peak solar hours, reducing the profitability of new plants.
– The slowdown we observed in 2025 and the expected decline in 2026 are important signals pointing to a new reality – said Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe.
Recovery expected from 2027 onwards
Despite the short-term setback, the medium-term outlook remains positive. SolarPower Europe’s medium scenario forecasts a rebound in 2027 to 689 GW, followed by 742 GW in 2028, 804 GW in 2029, and 864 GW in 2030. The industry’s focus is shifting from raw capacity growth to smarter system integration.
– Scaling up the solar sector is no longer just about increasing capacity, but about how well it can be integrated into the system – Hemetsberger added. The report highlights that better storage solutions, grid upgrades, and market reforms will be crucial to sustain long-term expansion.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. R.Power
