The Danube has fallen to a record low in Budapest – just 23 centimetres – and nuclear plants across Central Europe are feeling the heat. Hungary’s Paks power station, which supplies nearly half of domestic electricity, has already cut output below 50 percent and may be forced off the grid entirely if conditions fail to improve.
Romania has had to switch off one reactor at Cernavodă, a plant that normally covers around one-fifth of national power generation, and was preparing to stop a second unit. The expected interruption of one to two weeks comes at the worst possible time, as heatwaves push up demand for air conditioning. The Danube’s problems go beyond navigation and hydropower: river-based nuclear stations need large amounts of cooling water, and when the river is shallow and warm, they cannot safely discharge heated water back into the ecosystem.
France has been hit too. In mid-July, high river temperatures cut output by 6.3 gigawatts across eight reactors, roughly 14 percent of French demand at that moment. Later in the same heatwave, restrictions reached around 9 gigawatts. Reactors are not physically running dry. Warmer and shallower rivers can absorb less waste heat, and that forces operators to reduce output. With climate change expected to bring more droughts and heatwaves, such limits may become a recurring feature of nuclear operations.
Investors reward AI winners on global stock markets
While Europe contended with energy strains, tech earnings drove a global rally. Microsoft delivered a 31 percent jump in net profit, reaching $35.8 billion, and Azure cloud revenue grew 43 percent. The market response was immediate and dramatic: shares soared 15.5 percent, the biggest one-day gain since 2008, adding $450 billion to the company’s market value.
Amazon reinforced the AI narrative with revenue of $200.6 billion and 37 percent growth in AWS cloud sales to $42.2 billion, the fastest pace in 18 quarters. Its stock rose 10.4 percent after the report. Apple, however, was punished despite record June-quarter numbers: revenue grew 16 percent to $109.4 billion and earnings per share rose 29 percent to $2.02, but China sales of $18.8 billion and services revenue of $30.7 billion came in below forecasts. Shares fell 6 percent, showing that investors now expect growth in the areas that reduce dependence on iPhone upgrades, not just solid headline results.
The optimism reached Warsaw: WIG jumped 1.3 percent to a record 146,779 points and WIG20 gained 1.6 percent to 3,907 points, lifted again by global risk appetite rather than domestic news.
Eurozone edges ahead of the US, helped by Ireland
The euro area expanded by 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q2, twice the 0.2 percent expected by economists. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.5 percent, missing the 2.1 percent forecast. After converting Europe’s quarterly figure to annualised terms, the bloc grew about 1.6 percent – slightly faster than America, a rare outcome given years of stronger US performance.
But Ireland accounts for a large share of the surprise: its GDP rose 3.9 percent after contracting roughly 7 percent in Q1. Multinational tech and pharmaceutical companies moving intellectual property, assets or drug shipments can swing Irish data dramatically. Germany, France and Italy each grew 0.2 percent, with Germany beating expectations – important for Polish exporters. Hungary managed 0.4 percent, below forecasts and slower than its 0.8 percent in Q1, while Czech quarterly growth was also about 0.4 percent, with annual growth slowing to 2 percent from 2.2 percent. Poland’s flash estimate is due in mid-August, with economists expecting around 3.7-3.8 percent.
Russian fuel ban and scarce refineries push diesel prices up
Russia extended its ban on exports of petrol, diesel, marine fuel and other oil products to January 31, 2027. The move is meant to stabilise the domestic market after Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out refining capacity, including a complete halt at one of Russia’s largest plants in Ryazan. Some diesel exports may resume from September for certain producers, but intermediary sales abroad remain blocked.
Global refined fuel markets were already tight before the ban. The Brent price has dropped from above $100 to around $85, yet wholesale fuel prices stay high because the bottleneck is refining capacity, not crude supply. Disruptions at Saudi Arabia’s Jizan refinery and Kuwait’s huge Al-Zour complex have added to the strain. Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, and even though the EU no longer buys Russian fuel directly, buyers in Turkey, Brazil and North Africa now compete with Europe for scarce cargoes.
In Poland, average diesel prices have climbed back above 8 zloty per litre, last seen in late March before tax cuts under the CPN programme. Petrol 95 averages about 7.51 zloty, the most expensive since June 2022. According to Reflex, petrol rose by 12 grosze and diesel by 24 grosze over the past week; another week of increases is expected, roughly 4-5 grosze for petrol and 16 grosze for diesel. The government has signalled a possible return to regulated prices and a VAT cut for the final two weeks of August, when millions of Poles are returning from holidays. Yet while tax cuts may mask the price at the pump, they do not create additional refinery capacity, and the budget will eventually foot the bill.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/EPA/ZOLTAN BALOGH
