Adam Glapiński signaled that a cut in interest rates in Poland remains a possible scenario for 2026. His remarks came a day after the Monetary Policy Council left the NBP reference rate unchanged at 3.75%. We examine what further moves the Council might make and whether borrowers can expect lower installments.
During his press conference on Thursday, the NBP president said that after the summer break he might propose reducing rates by 25 basis points. This was the key takeaway from the July MPC meeting, where the council decided to hold the reference rate at 3.75%.
Glapiński stressed that he only speaks for himself and has just one vote on the council. In his view, if the economic and inflation situation remains stable, a motion for a rate cut after the summer holidays would be likely. However, he ruled out a larger cycle of reductions this year, stating that two cuts in 2026 are “rather out of the question”.
Impact on loan installments
How might loan installments respond to a potential rate cut? The key factor is WIBOR, the rate at which banks lend to each other, which directly determines the interest on variable-rate loans. WIBOR is one component of a loan’s interest rate; the other is the bank’s margin, which remains fixed for the loan’s duration.
For loans linked to WIBOR 3M, installments are adjusted every three months. For those based on WIBOR 6M, changes occur every six months. As of now, for a 30-year mortgage of PLN 300,000, 400,000 or 500,000 with a 2% margin, the monthly installments under WIBOR 3M stand at specific levels (provided in the original article’s table).
Economists’ outlook and risks
Analysts at ING Bank note that their baseline scenario still assumes no change in rates by the end of 2026. “We observe, however, that the central bank’s rhetoric has become even more dovish than in June, and the balance of risks now tilts toward a possible rate cut before year-end, whereas in May it was skewed toward potential hikes,” they commented.
They added that the key factor for this scenario is a fall in oil prices and a calming of the situation around Iran. In their view, the governor’s accommodative stance may keep the zloty weak, especially against regional currencies. “Moreover, the NBP head stressed that he is not worried about the weak zloty, which contrasts with the communication’s remarks about possible intervention,” the economists concluded.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/Rafał Guz
