Polish oil refiner Orlen faces a heightened risk of a Russian provocation or attack on its Mazeikiai refinery in Lithuania, as intelligence reports point to a possible „false flag” operation in the coming weeks. The company, however, says it is in constant cooperation with all relevant security services.
According to security services, the risk of Russian provocations and attacks along NATO’s eastern flank, particularly in the Baltic states, is increasing. These could occur within the next few weeks, driven by several factors. By the end of September, a new Latvian air defense and anti-drone system on the border with Russia and Belarus is expected to become operational, making future attacks more difficult. Russia is also preparing for its State Duma elections — the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. With limited progress on the battlefield and growing domestic discontent over daily Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory, President Putin may seek to demonstrate a „success” — and a successful operation against a NATO member could serve that purpose.
Growing risk of false flag attacks
Experts suggest these would be „false flag” attacks, using Ukrainian drones captured or obtained by Russia. In May, two drones fired from Ukraine hit an oil depot in the Latvian town of Rezekne, due to GPS jamming. Security services now consider a repeat scenario against Orlen’s fuel infrastructure in Mazeikiai, where Russia could stage a provocation and blame Ukraine.
WNP.pl asked Orlen about the risk of a Russian attack or provocation against its Mazeikiai refinery, operated by Orlen Lietuva. The company responded: – We are constantly cooperating with all relevant services and institutions responsible for state security and the protection of critical infrastructure, especially on the Lithuanian side, and also, in accordance with the relevant competences, with partners on the Polish side. The exchange of information and risk assessment are ongoing and are also taken into account in the applicable security, crisis response and business continuity procedures – said Orlen’s press office.
Orlen’s stance on security details
Orlen states it continuously monitors the security environment and analyzes a broad spectrum of risks, including geopolitical, operational, cyber, and supply continuity risks. The infrastructure in Mazeikiai is covered by organizational, technical, and procedural solutions appropriate for such facilities and their importance to the region’s energy security. The company reviews and adjusts these measures to the current situation. However, it refused to disclose specific risk assessments or security measures. – Due to the nature of these issues, we do not publicly comment on the details of cooperation with services, specific risk scenarios, types of security measures, their deployment, or technical parameters. We also do not comment on details of possible incidents, reports, or operational assessments by relevant institutions. Disclosing such information could limit the effectiveness of preventive and protective actions – the press office added.
Unofficially, Orlen employees note that public awareness of threats from Russia and Belarus is significantly higher in Lithuania than in Poland. The company maintains that cooperation in this area is coordinated and operational, not reduced to the initiative of one party, but involving all relevant entities according to their competences and procedures.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Orlen / materiały prasowe
