Russian primary aluminium production rose by 7.3% in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to data from Rosstat. The increase comes as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the US-Israel military action against Iran, cut off supplies from key Gulf producers, creating a market gap that Russia moved quickly to fill.
In May alone, Russian aluminium output was 3.2% higher year-on-year. On a monthly basis, production grew 2.8% compared to April 2026. The acceleration is notable given that just weeks earlier, Rusal, the country’s largest aluminium producer, had announced plans to cut output by 10% due to fears of falling prices.
Gold rush in the Gulf: How the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped the aluminium market
The military escalation in the Middle East changed the equation overnight. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, deliveries from aluminium smelters in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates ground to a halt. These two Gulf states together account for a significant share of global aluminium exports, and their sudden absence from the market sent supply chains into disarray.
Russia, after China the world’s second-largest aluminium supplier, found itself in a position to absorb the shortfall. The bloc of western sanctions, which had previously limited Russian metal sales in some markets, did little to stop the flow of Russian aluminium to customers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East who were scrambling for alternative supplies.
Rusal reverses course: From planned cuts to production surge
Rusal’s earlier decision to reduce output was based on a different market outlook. The company cited price weakness and inventory build‑up as reasons for the planned 10% cut. But the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf upended those calculations. With spot aluminium prices jumping by over 12% in the weeks following the closure, Rusal quickly shelved the reduction plan and began ramping up production instead.
The Russian state statistics agency confirmed that the upward trend was sustained through May. Industry analysts point out that Russia’s geographical advantage — its ability to ship aluminium via the Northern Sea Route and its own Pacific ports — made it less vulnerable to blockades that affect Gulf shipping lanes. This strategic position allowed Russian producers to respond faster than many competitors.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Rusal
