Russia may be gearing up for a major escalation against Europe, with a potential attack possible as early as September, according to military analyst Robert Fox. In a commentary for the British daily „The Independent,” Fox points to three signals suggesting Vladimir Putin is about to „throw himself at Europe.”
Fox argues that Russia is functioning as a war economy and Putin has become a war leader. – Peace does not fit into his vision of his own political survival – he wrote. The analyst believes that a prolonged war lasting into winter could push Putin to take even more radical steps.
One possible scenario is the announcement of partial or full mobilization, which would allow Russia to recruit at least 500,000 new soldiers. Such a move would likely also involve the introduction of a full state of war in Russia.
Three signals of an impending attack
Fox identified three specific indicators that the Kremlin may be planning to intensify its actions directed at Europe. The first is the complete transformation of the Russian economy into a war footing. The second is the growing pressure within the Russian leadership to achieve a decisive victory. The third is the preparation of infrastructure and logistics for a large-scale offensive.
The analyst noted that Ukraine and its Baltic neighbors, as well as all European NATO allies, must seriously reconsider their air defense capabilities. – Kyiv and its Baltic neighbors will have to seriously think about their own anti-aircraft defense. This applies to all European allies in NATO – Fox added.
Consequences for NATO and the region
The potential Russian attack would mean a dramatic increase in the threat level for the entire eastern flank of the alliance. Poland and the Baltic states, which have already significantly boosted their defense spending, would face the need for further rapid modernization. Fox warned that Putin may view the coming weeks as a critical window of opportunity to change the course of the war.
The analyst emphasized that the Kremlin is not considering a peaceful resolution. – Putin’s political survival depends on continued conflict – he stated. Experts in Europe are now calling for immediate preparations, including the deployment of additional forces and the acceleration of arms production to counter any potential Russian aggression this autumn.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/EPA/ARTYOM GEODAKYAN/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL/POOL
