Baltic intelligence services are warning of a growing threat from Russia, which may resort to provocations involving not only drones but also armed unmanned aircraft and missiles. According to their assessments, a potential escalation could occur in the coming weeks, a period of particular significance for Moscow.
As reported by WNP.PL, top officials, including Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, have been speaking openly about the heightened risk of a provocative Russian strike on NATO’s eastern flank. This week, Kosiniak-Kamysz stressed that the threat from Russia remains 'very high’ and that he would 'never introduce a state of calm’ in this regard.
’Russia is moving step by step up the escalation ladder, also in cyberspace,’ he said, noting that all countries of NATO’s eastern bloc are vulnerable. The minister also pointed out that Russia has 'captured a significant number of Ukrainian drones’ and, in his view, may use them 'as a provocation element to confuse and change flags,’ for which we must be prepared.
The weakest link in the eastern flank
According to sources cited by WNP.PL, the most likely location for a Russian provocation is currently Latvia, perceived by the aggressor as the weakest link in the air and drone defence of NATO’s eastern flank. This situation is gradually changing, but not overnight. Latvia’s minister of defence recently stated that an improved defence system on the border with Belarus and Russia will be fully deployed only by the end of September.
Notably, Latvia’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for 3 October, creating a window of several weeks for potential Russian escalation. In this context, the arrest of Ukrainian drones captured by Moscow is seen as a ready tool for such provocations. As a reminder, on 7 May this year, Ukrainian drones flew over Latvian territory, and one of them – whose signal was likely jammed by Russian systems – struck oil storage facilities in Rēzekne.
Targets beyond the borders
The same sources indicate that a repeat scenario could involve infrastructure belonging to Orlen in Możajki (Mažeikiai) or the electricity transmission networks of Litgrid. However, that is not the full picture. Sources within intelligence circles also point to what they call the 'maximum probable scenario’ of Moscow’s provocations.
According to them, targets of missile attacks could include the infrastructure being built in Rudninkai, Lithuania, for the permanent deployment of the German 45th Armoured Brigade. This site is currently a construction zone, but an attack there could, in the view of whistleblowers, discourage the Germans from maintaining a permanent presence in that specific location.
Beyond the Baltic states, the list of threatened nations also includes Finland and Romania. The coming weeks are considered especially dangerous as Moscow seeks to exploit every opportunity to test NATO’s resolve and create rifts within the alliance.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock
