The Monetary Policy Council has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, leaving the reference rate at 3.75 percent. While borrowers hoping for immediate relief may be disappointed, analysts point to a silver lining: falling fixed-rate mortgage offers and significant savings available through refinancing.
The Council’s decision, announced on Wednesday, July 8, marks the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut. The only reduction this year came in March, when the reference rate was lowered by 25 basis points. In 2025, the RPP cut rates six times, bringing the key rate down from 5.75 percent to 4 percent.
According to Jarosław Sadowski, an analyst at Rankomat.pl, banks are aggressively lowering fixed-rate mortgage offers. Before the conflict in the Middle East escalated, fixed rates had briefly dipped below 6 percent – and now they are back there again.
Refinancing offers a lifeline for borrowers with high rates
Sadowski stresses that refinancing a mortgage taken out in July 2024 can now save a borrower as much as 24,919 złoty over the remaining fixed-rate period. In March, April and May, refinancing already accounted for roughly one-third of all new mortgages issued. The driver? Easing geopolitical tensions.
– The fading conflict in the Middle East reduces the risk of rate hikes in Poland. This pushes down IRS contract rates, which determine fixed mortgage rates. As a result, both new fixed-rate loans and refinancing products become cheaper – said Sadowski.
He highlights a concrete example: someone who took out a mortgage in November 2022 at a fixed rate of 9.11 percent – paying a monthly instalment of 4,179 złoty on a 500,000 złoty loan – could now refinance at roughly 5.75 percent. The new instalment would fall to 3,075 złoty, a monthly saving of 1,104 złoty.
Even newer loans can be worth refinancing
The analyst notes that refinancing can pay off even for loans taken out only two years ago. For a mortgage signed in mid-2024 at 7.87 percent, the instalment drops from around 3,767 złoty to 3,075 złoty, saving 692 złoty per month. Over the remaining three years of the fixed-rate period, that adds up to 24,919 złoty.
– Nothing prevents a borrower from refinancing before the five-year fixed-rate term ends. The current market conditions make it a very attractive option – added Sadowski.
The RPP’s next move remains uncertain. Many economists expect no further changes until the end of 2026, but falling IRS rates and lower geopolitical risk are already translating into tangible benefits for mortgage holders.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Paweł Supernak / PAP
