The Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, leaving the reference rate at 3.75 percent. This is the lowest level since April 2022, but the fourth consecutive meeting without a cut. With no changes expected for the rest of the year, borrowers may find relief not from the central bank, but from banks themselves.
The decision, announced on Wednesday, July 8, maintains all major rates at current levels. A press conference with NBP President Adam Glapiński is scheduled for Thursday, where he will explain the council’s reasoning. In 2025, the RPP cut rates six times, bringing the reference rate down from 5.75 to 4 percent. This year, only one cut occurred – a 0.25 percentage point reduction in March.
According to market observers, the period of monetary easing has paused. The council appears cautious amid global uncertainty and domestic inflation pressures. However, analysts point out that the fixed-rate mortgage market is already reacting independently of the RPP.
Banks offer lower fixed rates despite stable base rate
Jarosław Sadowski, an analyst at Rankomat.pl, notes that banks are significantly reducing fixed interest rates on mortgages. – Similar to the period before the conflict in the Middle East, you can once again count on a fixed rate below 6 percent. By refinancing a loan taken out in July 2024, you can save 24,919 zlotys. In March, April and May, refinancing accounted for about one-third of all loans granted – said Sadowski.
The drop in fixed rates is linked to the easing of geopolitical tensions. – As a result, the risk of interest rate hikes in Poland is decreasing. This leads to lower quotes on IRS contracts, which determine fixed mortgage rates. Consequently, both new fixed-rate loans and refinancing loans with fixed rates become cheaper – the analyst explained. He added that this is a good opportunity for those who took out fixed-rate loans before last year’s rate cuts.
Refinancing brings substantial savings
– For example, if someone took out a loan in November 2022 with a rate of 9.11 percent, they would theoretically pay high installments until November 2027. However, nothing prevents refinancing such a loan into a new one with a lower rate. Currently you can expect a rate of about 5.75 percent. For a loan of 500,000 zlotys, the monthly payment would drop from 4,179 to 3,075 zlotys – a saving of 1,104 zlotys – Sadowski calculated.
Even greater savings are possible for loans with slightly lower original rates. – Consider a loan taken out two years ago at 7.87 percent. The monthly payment would decrease by 692 zlotys. But with three years left on the five-year fixed period, the total benefit from refinancing would reach 24,919 zlotys – concluded the analyst.
The RPP’s decision to stand still contrasts with the dynamic mortgage market. While the central bank waits, banks are competing for borrowers with cheaper fixed-rate offers. For homeowners, the key question is not when the RPP will cut, but whether their current bank will match the market.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Paweł Supernak / PAP
