Poland’s fuel tax cut is about to expire, but drivers may barely notice the difference. Minister of Energy Miłosz Motyka confirmed the program will not be extended beyond June 30, meaning the VAT on petrol and diesel will jump from 8% to 23%. However, a closer look at wholesale prices suggests that PKN Orlen has already built a cushion.
Brent crude has fallen to under $73 per barrel, down sharply since the US-Iran conflict began. In the two weeks to June 25, European diesel prices dropped by 16.8% in dollar terms, while Orlen’s wholesale diesel fell only 4.6%. This discrepancy—nearly 12 percentage points—indicates the refiner is absorbing market declines to offset the coming tax hike. Drivers may see only a few groszy increase at the pump, as Minister Motyka recently hinted.
Poles remain eurosceptic as Hungarians embrace the euro
The latest Eurobarometer shows 43% of Poles support adopting the euro, down 3 points from a year ago. Opposition rose to 56%. Most Poles believe adopting the common currency would lead to price increases and a loss of national identity. Among Czechs, 58% oppose the euro. In Hungary, however, where forint weakness and high inflation left deep scars, support surged to 80% after the new government declared a goal of meeting convergence criteria by 2030.
Hungary still meets none of the Maastricht criteria, with the highest debt and interest rates among non-euro EU members. But the survey shows how economic pain can shift public opinion. Meanwhile, Poland’s central bank (NBP) released a survey of professional forecasters predicting average inflation of 3% this year and GDP growth of 3.5%, slowing gradually to 2.8% by 2028. The main risks remain energy prices and fiscal policy.
Ukraine halts Moscow refinery output; heatwave drives power prices
Ukraine’s drone strikes on a Gazprom Neft refinery near Moscow have knocked out production for at least six months, according to Reuters sources. The facility supplied 2.9 million tonnes of petrol and 3.2 million tonnes of diesel to the capital region in 2024. The damage deepens fuel shortages across Russia, prompting authorities to consider an export ban on diesel and even imports. In Crimea, petrol sales to individuals have been suspended entirely.
In Europe, a record-breaking heatwave is pushing electricity prices to levels not seen since early 2025. France recorded its hottest day ever at 44.3°C, forcing EDF to cut nuclear output by 4.1 GW due to river water temperatures. Wind generation is also low. German day-ahead prices exceeded €500 per MWh in evening hours, while Poland saw spikes above 2,700 PLN per MWh. Households on regulated tariffs are shielded, but industrial consumers and those on dynamic contracts face rising costs.
Forecasters see temperatures near 40°C across most of Poland through the weekend, keeping pressure on the power system. If the heat persists, it could feed into higher inflation and production costs.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/Radek Pietruszka
