KGHM shares have come a long way in the past year – from around 120 złoty to the current 300 złoty, with an all-time high of 395 złoty hit in June 2026. Since that peak, the stock has corrected by more than 30%, raising the question: is this a temporary setback or the start of a deeper slide?
The Polish copper and silver giant has been the undisputed star of the WIG20 index over the last twelve months, delivering a 130% gain while the benchmark rose just over 25%. The rally was driven by surging metal prices, strong financial results, and a newly unveiled long-term strategy. But recent turbulence on commodity markets and a cautious stance from analysts have poured cold water on investor enthusiasm.
In the first quarter of 2026, KGHM reported revenue of 11.87 billion złoty (up from 8.94 billion a year earlier), adjusted EBITDA of 5.46 billion, and net profit of 3.53 billion – a tenfold increase year-on-year. The average copper price rose from $9,340 to $12,844 per tonne in the same period.
Strategy 2055+: Ambition and uncertainty
KGHM recently presented its Strategy 2055+, outlining 32 billion złoty in investments over the coming years. Nearly 80% of the funds will be spent in Poland, with the rest going to international assets such as KGHM International and Sierra Gorda. The plan includes a gradual increase in copper production to around 730,000 tonnes per year and silver output at roughly 1,300 tonnes annually – only a modest rise from current levels.
Analysts have described the strategy as conservative and credible, but not overly optimistic. The average annual capital expenditure is set at 6.5 billion złoty, which will put pressure on free cash flow and the ability to pay dividends. KGHM returned to dividend payments in 2026, distributing 300 million złoty (1.5 złoty per share), but many market participants expected more clarity on future payouts. – Such companies as KGHM are evaluated by how they share profits with shareholders. Compared to Orlen, which provided very detailed dividend policy in its strategy, KGHM looked pale – said an analyst who requested anonymity.
Metal prices and market outlook
The valuation of KGHM is heavily dependent on copper and silver prices. Silver surged to nearly $122 per ounce in late January 2026 but has since fallen by more than half. Copper has been more stable but also corrected from its highs. – Humanity has used copper for tens of thousands of years and nothing suggests it will stop soon. Demand for copper is structural and its deficit is chronic. KGHM is one of the world’s biggest beneficiaries of this trend, but the road to being a hegemon will be long and bumpy. That means the company’s valuation, despite solid fundamentals and good prospects, will be subject to strong turbulence – said Kamil Szczepański, analyst at XTB.
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley lowered its recommendation on KGHM from 'overweight’ to 'neutral’ and cut the target price from 416 złoty to 340 złoty. The analyst cited risks related to the new strategy, which focuses on acquisitions and diversification into other minerals, moving KGHM away from being a pure copper and silver play. Higher uncertainty around potential takeovers and lower returns for shareholders could keep the discount vs. peers. Trigon DM, meanwhile, maintains a 'hold’ rating with a target of 363 złoty, about 20% above the current price.
The stock currently trades at around 300 złoty, valuing the company at roughly 62 billion złoty – down from 79 billion at the peak. With a structurally strong demand outlook but clear short-term headwinds, KGHM remains a high-conviction yet high-volatility story for investors willing to ride the cycles.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. MOZCO / Shutterstock
