Poland has one of Europe’s largest copper resource potentials, a developed industrial base, experienced personnel, and existing metallurgical infrastructure. The problem begins when it comes time to move from geological exploration to investment, because lengthy administrative procedures, regulatory uncertainty, and difficulties in securing capital mean that some projects remain at the planning stage. Participants at the Future Mining Forum & Expo argue that without a change in approach, Poland may fail to capitalize on its advantage at a time when copper is becoming one of the most important raw materials for energy, defense, data centers, and new technologies.
Copper is increasingly becoming more than a commodity associated with traditional cable manufacturing or construction. It is needed to expand power grids, manufacture equipment for renewable energy, develop electric mobility and industrial automation, as well as build data centers and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. In Europe, the importance of domestic sources of raw materials is even greater because the continent remains dependent on imports of many metals needed for the economic transition and the development of new technologies. A panel devoted to the future of the copper market at the Future Mining Forum & Expo in Katowice showed, however, that simply having resources is not enough for Poland to become a beneficiary of rising demand.
The event organizers pointed out that the path from discovering a deposit to launching a mine is becoming longer, more capital-intensive, and exposed to a growing number of risks. The panel, titled “The New Copper Map. Where Will the Projects of the Future Be Developed?”, brought together representatives of KGHM, EY, the Ministry of Climate and Environment, Lumina Metals, and the Polish Geological Institute. The discussion focused not only on where more copper might still be found in Poland, but above all on what needs to change for identified resources to translate into actual investment.
Zbigniew Liptak, a partner at EY, points out that the importance of copper to the economy will increase as industries requiring large quantities of conductors and electrical equipment expand. In his view, the scale of future demand could create an opportunity for Poland comparable to the role played by other commodities for decades.
– What is more, everything indicates that under the current development plans for industries that consume copper, demand for the metal will exceed supply. Within NATO countries alone, we know that we need 6 million tons of metal per year, while we produce only 3 million tons of copper. Meeting these needs is crucial – the specialist says.
According to Liptak, Poland is at a particular economic juncture because some of its traditional sources of growth are gradually losing momentum. Large infrastructure projects carried out in recent years are already largely complete, while credit and private investment have become additional sources of demand. In such an environment, a sector that simultaneously benefits from domestic resources, has an existing industrial base, and can supply raw materials needed by other parts of the economy could become increasingly important.
– Our tradition of copper mining speaks in its favor. We have the workforce, we have the institutions, we have capital, and ultimately we have a mining ethos. The Copper Valley concept, which is being promoted more and more loudly, is a very interesting project – Liptak says.
This is an important difference compared with mining projects developed from scratch in countries where an entire industrial base first has to be built. Poland already has KGHM, ore-processing facilities, smelters, a transportation network, technology suppliers, and companies providing mining services. If a new deposit is located close to existing infrastructure, some of the costs and risks may be lower than in the case of building a mine in a region with no industrial base.
One example is the Nowa Sól project, which Lumina Metals is developing in western Poland and for which a preliminary feasibility study is currently underway. In May 2026, the company also signed a letter of intent with KGHM concerning potential deliveries of concentrate from the project to KGHM’s Polish smelters.
The technological revolution needs metals
Karol Zglinicki of the Polish Geological Institute points out that the current surge in interest in copper is not being driven by a single sector. Demand is being generated simultaneously by the energy transition, the defense industry, digitalization, and the expansion of data centers. Each of these segments requires electrical infrastructure, and expanding that infrastructure means greater consumption of conductive metals.
– We are currently dealing with an energy transition; copper is needed by the defense industry, as well as by the development of AI and data centers – the scientist says.
According to Zglinicki, Europe still has opportunities to expand its domestic resource base, although the nature of new discoveries may differ from that in regions where large-scale exploration is still taking place across virtually unexplored areas. In Europe, projects located close to existing deposits are becoming increasingly important, including deposits that were mined in the past. This means that the geological structure of known areas needs to be analyzed with increasing precision, while methods capable of identifying deposits at greater depths need to be employed.
According to data cited during the discussion, 263 major copper deposits were discovered worldwide between 1990 and 2025. A major deposit is defined as one containing at least 0.5 million metric tons of copper. In Europe, deposits in Nowa Sól and Serbia were among those falling into this category. The number of discoveries alone does not mean that every deposit can quickly become a mine. After geological exploration comes a multiyear process involving resource assessment, project economics, environmental issues, infrastructure design, financing, and obtaining a series of administrative approvals.
– We will continue searching for new deposits, and new deposits will be discovered – the specialist believes.
Advances in exploration technology are also changing where future deposits can be sought. Deep drilling is becoming increasingly important, along with methods that allow the geological structure beneath the surface to be mapped more precisely. This could be particularly important for Poland, as many of the most promising areas are located in regions where copper mining already operates or has operated in the past.
Poland has the resources, but investors need predictability
Krzysztof Napierała, vice president for corporate development at Lumina Metals, points out that Poland has an advantage that cannot be reduced solely to the possibility of new discoveries. It has an existing resource base and the potential to expand it further. Lumina has been operating in Poland for 15 years, and the Nowa Sól project is currently one of the most advanced foreign-backed projects focused on developing new domestic copper and silver resources.
The company is currently carrying out additional drilling at Nowa Sól while simultaneously developing the Sulmierzyce and Mozów projects. In the case of Nowa Sól, a preliminary feasibility study was launched in 2026 and is scheduled for completion in the second half of 2027. The company plans approximately 8,200 meters of drilling in four holes to increase the level of geological knowledge and prepare the project for its next stage.
From an investor’s perspective, however, the mere presence of resources is only the beginning of the economic calculation. A mine requires enormous amounts of capital, and money is committed for many years before the first ton of concentrate can be sold.
The longer it takes to obtain successive approvals, the longer capital remains tied up and the greater the importance of changes in copper prices, energy costs, construction services, financing conditions, and environmental regulations.
For a project expected to operate for decades, uncertainty during the initial years can directly affect an investor’s decision over whether to move into the next phase of development at all.
The mining concession could become the investment bottleneck
The greatest tension during the discussion concerned the administrative process. In mining, a concession is not a formality that can simply be dealt with at the end of an investment. Without the necessary approvals, a company cannot move from resource exploration to subsequent stages of development, and a delay in one decision can shift the entire project schedule.
Industry representatives point out that the problem is not only the number of approvals required, but also the time needed to obtain them. The environmental decision is particularly important because a mining project affects land, water, infrastructure, and property use. Only after completing successive stages can an investor obtain a full basis for planning mine construction.
Maciej Młynarczyk, director of the Department of Geology at the Ministry of Climate and Environment, noted that the actual issuance of a concession can be relatively quick. Before that, however, an investor must go through numerous procedures and obtain the required approvals. It is precisely the accumulation of these stages that means the entire process can take considerably longer than the time required to issue any individual decision.
The problem is particularly acute for projects that require tens or hundreds of millions of złoty to be spent before a final decision on mine construction can even be made. An investor must finance drilling, geological analysis, environmental studies, technical documentation, and economic studies without knowing when the project will be able to move to the next stage. Extending the administrative process therefore does not necessarily mean merely postponing the start of production. It can change the economics of the entire project.
A proposal for a special copper mining act
Against this backdrop, the panel raised a proposal to create a special act governing the development of copper mining. Its primary purpose would not be to eliminate environmental requirements or other safeguards, but to establish a clear administrative pathway and deadlines for individual decisions. For a company planning an investment, this would make it easier to prepare a schedule and financial model.
Such a mechanism is particularly important for investments whose preparation takes more than a decade. If an investor does not know whether a particular decision will be issued in six months, two years, or even later, it becomes more difficult to determine when construction can begin, plan financing, sign contracts with contractors, and secure future raw-material supplies. In large mining projects, every change to the schedule can mean a change in the cost of the entire undertaking.
Zbigniew Bryja, vice president of KGHM for development, points out that the time required to prepare and build a mine is already extremely long in itself.
The history of KGHM’s GG1 shaft illustrates this particularly well. Work on the project began roughly two decades ago, and the project is now at the final stage of construction. The fact that a single piece of mining infrastructure can require such a long period of preparation and implementation shows why companies are seeking greater administrative predictability.
KGHM is also expanding its mining base northward. The construction of additional shafts is intended to enable the company to access ore beyond the current mining area, while the geological conditions in the new areas require different technological solutions. Automation and the use of machinery can reduce the role of human labor in some processes, but technology alone cannot shorten the years-long administrative pathway preceding the launch of a new mining level.
Poland already has an example of special legislation accelerating investment
Poland’s legal system already contains examples of solutions based on special-purpose legislation. One of the best-known was the 2009 act concerning the preparation of the investment in the LNG regasification terminal in Świnoujście. Over time, the legislation also covered additional elements of gas infrastructure, making it possible to implement projects considered important from the perspective of national security more efficiently.
In the case of copper, the argument is similar, although it concerns a different type of security. Poland already has an established mining and metallurgical industry, while the European economy will need increasing quantities of metals used in energy, digitalization, and the defense industry. New domestic copper sources could therefore increase Poland’s role in the European raw-material supply chain and reduce dependence on imported concentrate.
This is why the debate over new mines increasingly resembles something broader than a traditional dispute over the development of a single industry. If investment in the Nowa Sól deposit or subsequent exploration projects eventually leads to production, the impact would extend beyond the mine itself. It would create demand for geological services, machinery, automation, energy, transportation, and raw-material processing technologies, while existing Polish smelters could gain access to domestically produced feedstock.
Poland’s greatest challenge is therefore not proving that copper exists underground. The country has a developed mining sector, KGHM has decades of experience, and projects such as Nowa Sól show that foreign capital is genuinely interested in Polish resources. Lumina is carrying out additional drilling, developing a feasibility study, and cooperating with KGHM on the potential use of Poland’s existing metallurgical infrastructure.
The problem begins at the stage when geological potential has to be turned into an investment decision. An investor needs to be able to estimate the time required to obtain approvals, the costs of subsequent stages, environmental conditions, access to infrastructure, and the future tax framework. Only then can it determine whether a project will be competitive with other deposits being developed around the world.
The Future Mining Forum & Expo showed that Poland has several of the elements needed to build another segment of the copper industry, but it does not yet have a complete system that would allow projects to move quickly from geological exploration to production. The mere presence of resources does not create a mine, just as investor interest alone does not amount to a multibillion-złoty investment. Efficient procedures, predictable regulations, access to financing, and the ability to plan an undertaking over a period of several decades are all required.
In the case of copper, time is particularly important because rising demand does not mean new mines will appear quickly. Even a project that already has an identified deposit needs additional years for studies, approvals, financing, infrastructure construction, and commissioning. If Poland wants to capitalize on copper’s growing importance as a raw material for the new economy, it therefore needs to act while investments are still being prepared. By the time a global copper deficit becomes a reality, it will already be too late to build new mines quickly.
The official Future Mining Forum program confirms that the panel focused specifically on the path from deposit exploration to mine construction, permitting issues, regulatory risks, and Poland’s potential. Lumina states that the Nowa Sól project currently has 604 million metric tons of measured and indicated resources under the NI 43-101 standard, while the company continues drilling and prepares its preliminary feasibility study.
Photo: KGHM
