The WIG20 index set a new high of the current bull market on Wednesday, reaching 3830 points, but closed lower. The session ended at 3803 points, down 0.4%, yet the psychological barrier of 3800 points held. The all-time record from 2007 – 3940 points – is now only 3.5% away.
The morning saw WIG20 dip for about an hour after Tuesday’s record, then regain strength to hit another intraday peak. However, the rally ran out of steam before the close. According to Adam Stańczak from DM BOŚ, Wednesday’s session consolidated Tuesday’s breakout above 3800 points, with 3900 and 4000 now becoming the next psychological targets. He warned that the recent pace of gains and the market’s past sensitivity to round levels could lead to a pause or longer consolidation around 3800.
Meanwhile, the broad WIG index and the mid-cap mWIG40 also set new records in the morning, though only mWIG40 closed at a fresh all-time high of 10,034 points (+0.2%). The small-cap sWIG80, which peaked in late May, continues to lose ground.
Banking sector struggles while indices climb
The strong performance of WIG20 came despite weakness in banks – the WIG-Banki index lost over 1% both on Tuesday and Wednesday. This breaks the usual pattern where bank stocks lead a bull market. Over the past two years, WIG-Banki has surged 80%, and 50% over the last year, while WIG20 gained 48% and 32% respectively in the same periods.
– The new highs above June’s peaks mean the index has reached its highest closing level since July 2007. It has been moving in a slightly upward-sloping channel since early April and is now touching its upper boundary – noted Jacek Borawski from Noble Securities, adding that while sell signals are absent, the moving averages warn that a correction is becoming more likely.
Geopolitical tensions fail to dampen sentiment
A key catalyst for Tuesday’s breakout was the US CPI reading, which fell to 3.5% year-on-year from 4.2% in May, fueling hopes that interest rate hikes are over. This boosted risk appetite and weakened the dollar. Analysts also highlight that the market is increasingly desensitized to Middle East tensions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed oil price spikes – crude up over 15% in ten days – have not derailed the uptrend on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
– The sensitivity of investors to tensions in the Middle East seems to be fading – commented Adam Stańczak. The WIG20’s resilience supports the view that the correction may be postponed until after a possible new all-time high or even beyond the 4000 level. For now, the index needs fresh fuel – either from further disinflation in the US, a resolution of geopolitical risks, or stronger domestic buying – to finally surpass the 19‑year-old record.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Kamil Zajączkowski / Shutterstock
