Adam Glapiński, the governor of the National Bank of Poland, has signaled that another interest rate cut remains possible before the end of 2026. His statement came a day after the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep the reference rate at 3.75 percent. Borrowers are now asking whether lower loan installments are on the horizon.
Speaking at a press conference following the July meeting of the RPP, Glapiński said he might submit a motion to cut rates by 25 basis points after the summer break. He stressed that he speaks only for himself and holds just one vote on the Council. The condition for such a move is that the economic and inflation outlook remains stable.
Glapiński ruled out a larger cycle of cuts this year. Two reductions before December, he said, are „rather out of the question.”
How lower rates would affect loan installments
The direct link between the central bank’s key rate and loan costs runs through the WIBOR index. Banks use WIBOR to calculate interest on mortgages and other loans. The rate is the price at which banks lend money to each other, and for borrowers it forms one part of the total loan interest. The other part is the bank’s margin, which stays fixed for the entire loan term.
For loans tied to WIBOR 3M, rates update every three months. For those with WIBOR 6M, adjustments happen every six months. The article provided example calculations for loans of 300,000, 400,000, and 500,000 złotys over 30 years, with a 2 percent margin added. The figures show how much monthly payments would drop if the reference rate were cut by 25 basis points.
Economists see a shift in tone
Analysts at ING Bank noted that their base scenario still assumes no change in rates through the end of 2026. However, they pointed out that the central bank’s rhetoric has become more dovish compared to June. The balance of risks, they said, now leans toward a possible rate cut before year-end, whereas in May it had tilted toward potential hikes.
– A cut before December is now a real possibility, but much depends on oil prices and the situation around Iran – the ING experts commented.
They added that Glapiński’s softened stance could keep the zloty under pressure, especially against other regional currencies. The governor’s lack of concern over the weak zloty, they said, contrasts with earlier communication that mentioned possible intervention.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/Rafał Guz
