This summer is becoming the most expensive for Polish drivers in four years, with diesel prices set to exceed PLN 8 per liter and gasoline 95 approaching PLN 7.50. The end of the government’s fuel subsidy program and a sharp rise in global oil prices, fueled by the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are driving the increase. Analysts warn that unless a new relief package is introduced, the situation could worsen, impacting not only drivers but the entire economy.
According to data from the Reflex brokerage, diesel prices at Polish stations will surpass PLN 8 per liter this week, while gasoline 95 will reach PLN 7.30-7.40 per liter. These levels haven’t been seen since the summer of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a global energy crisis. Back then, the government introduced a VAT cut on fuel from 23% to 8% as part of a temporary shield, but that program, known as CPN, ended in early 2026.
Now, the situation is even more complex. The loss of approximately 5 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and another 13-14 million barrels from Persian Gulf countries has created a supply gap that is pushing prices higher. Brent crude is trading at around USD 90 per barrel, and diesel is under particular pressure due to strong demand from agriculture, construction, and transport sectors during the summer season.
Why are prices surging now?
The main driver is the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to free navigation. This route is crucial for global oil shipments, and its blockage has sent shockwaves through markets. – There is currently no ceasefire between the US and Iran. We see Brent at USD 90 and WTI above USD 81, but it’s still far from the USD 110-120 levels seen three months ago. Markets still hope this will end soon – said Piotr Kuczyński, chief analyst at Xelion brokerage.
Meanwhile, Russia’s diesel exports have been halted until the end of the year due to Ukrainian attacks on its refineries and pipeline infrastructure. Even Indian diesel, previously made from Russian crude, is now scarce as Russia itself needs to import fuel. This has pushed diesel prices up by 77% over the past six months, with current spot prices around USD 1,200 per ton.
No relief in sight, but possible government intervention
For comparison, last July a liter of gasoline 95 cost an average of PLN 5.92, diesel PLN 6.10, and LPG PLN 2.74. Now, drivers are paying nearly 30% more. The government’s budget, however, lacks funds for a full revival of the CPN program, which cost between PLN 4.7 and 5.1 billion. – We cannot count on the return of CPN – confirmed Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański also indicated there are no reserves for such a move.
Yet, economists argue that higher fuel costs will reduce consumer spending, slow GDP growth, and lower indirect tax revenues. This might force the government to introduce some form of relief to avoid an even more expensive economic scenario. For now, drivers must brace for possibly the highest fuel prices in history, with no end in sight until at least the end of the summer.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock
