Poland’s Ministry of Energy has unveiled a draft strategy for decarbonising the country’s district heating sector by 2040, with estimated investment costs ranging from PLN 197 billion to PLN 231 billion. The document, which is in its final consultation phase, envisions a massive shift from coal to power-to-heat technologies, but industry experts warn that the plans may overlook the critical role of local cogeneration and risk destabilising the power grid.
Currently, 64% of Poland’s district heat comes from combined heat and power (CHP) plants, well above the EU average of 28%. The system serves about 15 million customers through 23,000 km of pipelines, with coal accounting for 57.4% of fuel and natural gas for 15.2%. The strategy aims to replace fossil fuels with renewables, biomass, and decarbonised gases, targeting a 52.2% share of renewable energy in the heat sector by 2040, supported by 576 GWh of thermal storage.
Power-to-heat and the cost of transformation
The proposed transition relies heavily on power-to-heat solutions – heat pumps, electrode boilers, and induction units – to absorb surplus electricity from growing renewable capacity. The ministry estimates that PLN 197–231 billion will be needed, partly financed from the Modernisation Fund and the Energy Support Fund. However, industry representatives point out that the strategy in its current form may overemphasise the role of district heating in balancing the power system, while underplaying the need for genuine sector coupling that reduces fossil fuel consumption through efficient electric technologies and energy efficiency improvements.
– We appreciate that the strategy recognises the need to maintain security of supply and affordable heat for consumers, but it must also clearly state that an effective transformation requires a hybrid model. Electrification, power-to-heat, and thermal storage are necessary, but they cannot fully replace the role of local, dispatchable cogeneration – said Marcin Laskowski, president of the Polish District Heating Association (PTEC) and vice-president of PGE.
Heat pumps versus electric boilers – a dispute over efficiency
A key point of contention is the treatment of heat pumps in the document. The strategy assumes 5.5 GWt of installed power-to-heat capacity by 2040, of which 3.07 GWt would come from electric boilers. Paweł Lachman, president of the Polish Organisation of Heat Pump Technology Development (PORT PC), argues that this allocation is misguided.
– A heat pump delivers several units of heat from one unit of electricity, while an electric boiler converts power to heat almost one-to-one. Electric boilers should primarily be used to absorb renewable energy surpluses, not as a mainstream source. The strategy’s greater reliance on less efficient electric boilers than on heat pumps is a serious flaw – said Lachman.
He added that the document focuses too much on district heating’s role in power system balancing, neglecting broader sector coupling that would involve promoting efficient electric technologies, thermal storage, and energy efficiency across the entire heat sector. Lachman also stressed that electrification of heat must become a measurable target in Poland’s long-term energy policy, not just a side effect of the power sector’s transformation.
PTEC, on the other hand, warns that abandoning coal and gas CHP units too quickly could threaten grid stability. Simulations for the city of Rzeszów showed that gradually shutting down a local CHP plant and replacing it with power-to-heat could lead to severe consequences for the regional power system.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PTWP
