The 450th LNG carrier has docked at the Świnoujście terminal, marking the 40th delivery in the first half of 2026. Behind this milestone lies a troubling statistic: Poland has become almost completely dependent on US liquefied natural gas, especially after the halt of Qatari supplies due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. This reliance exposes the country to new, non-political threats like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
In the second quarter of 2026, 95% of LNG deliveries to Poland came from the United States. The remaining 5% arrived from Trinidad and Tobago. No Qatari LNG has been received since March 24, when the Duhail tanker made the last delivery under force majeure invoked by Qatar Energy after the US-Israeli attack on Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
The Qatar crisis and its impact on Polish LNG
Before the conflict, Qatar was Poland’s second-largest LNG supplier, with seven deliveries in the first quarter. In Q2 this number dropped to zero. While the total number of ship arrivals in Świnoujście remained similar to last year, the volume of gas received has shrunk. US vessels typically carry 155,000 to 180,000 cubic meters of LNG, while Qatari Q-Flex tankers transport up to 216,000 cubic meters. This means that even if the same number of ships arrives, Poland receives 100–200 million cubic meters less gas equivalent.
Satellite data shows 13 LNG carriers waiting near Ras Laffan in Qatar, including vessels that previously called at Świnoujście. However, renewed fighting in the region and uncertainty about the resumption of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz make it unclear when deliveries can restart.
The hidden vulnerability: hurricane season
Almost all US LNG terminals are located along the Gulf of Mexico, a region prone to Atlantic hurricanes. These storms can reach wind speeds over 250 km/h and have a diameter of up to 700 km, potentially shutting down terminals for days or even months. Historical data from the EIA shows that major hurricanes like Katrina (280 km/h) have caused extended disruptions. Poland’s heavy reliance on a single source located in a hurricane-prone area creates a natural risk independent of political decisions.
The Świnoujście terminal is now operating near 100% capacity, receiving one LNG carrier every 4.5 days on average. To match last year’s 81 deliveries, the terminal would need several more arrivals this year simply to compensate for the smaller cargo sizes from US suppliers.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. qatarenergy
