The fate of Poland’s coal-fired units is being decided in Brussels as the government negotiates the shape of the capacity market after 2030. Warsaw’s declared end goal is a mechanism that no longer supports coal, and the details of that transition are expected soon.
The capacity market, created by a 2017 law and active since 2021, is the main support tool for Poland’s power system. A gap after 2030 would leave investors without certainty that the energy they generate will find buyers, which could slow the low-emission projects Poland wants to bring online as coal is phased out.
The existing design has just held its last major auction. In December 2025, with delivery due in 2030, 9 GW of units entered the tender; some withdrew as the price dropped, and the auction closed in the second round at 465.02 zł/kW/year, contracting 6.9 GW of capacity obligations.
A three-part answer for the power market
The Ministry of Energy, working with grid operator PSE, has drawn up a 'capacity trio’ – three coordinated instruments meant to guarantee long-term capacity adequacy and access to flexible resources. The concept has been included in PSE’s strategy until 2040.
Government commissioner for strategic energy infrastructure Wojciech Wrochna said talks on the first two elements are moving smoothly. The hardest part, he indicated, is the third one, which concerns decarbonisation.
– It turns out that the capacity deficit we have is smaller than we thought. Therefore, we are considering how to best move through these coal units that today are not eligible for capacity market compensation. We want to reach the target model, i.e. not supporting coal units in the capacity market – said Wrochna.
A heatwave shows why the mechanism matters
Auction winners, which include power plants, are paid by electricity consumers to keep sufficient dispatchable capacity ready for the national grid. Without their obligations, the system operator could struggle to keep the network stable.
That role was visible on Tuesday, when PSE announced a capacity market call for the second time this year; the first took place on 30 June. Participants were asked to deliver power or cut consumption in specific hours as a heatwave pushed up demand from air conditioning and drought lowered water levels in rivers used by conventional plants.
Forum Energii, in a ten-year review of the capacity market, estimates the total cost of the mechanism for 2021-2046 at roughly 200 billion zł. The capacity fee would amount to 8.1% of household electricity bills, 10.1% for small and medium businesses, and up to 14.1% for some industrial plants.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. WATCH_MEDIA_HOUSE / Shutterstock
