While the European Commission downgrades economic forecasts for most EU member states, Poland remains an unchanged point on the map. The Polish Economic Institute announced that Poland is one of only three countries in the bloc for which Brussels did not lower this year’s GDP growth forecast, despite a serious energy crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.
In the European Commission’s spring forecast, the largest European economies lost the most. Germany lost 0.6 percentage points of projected growth, Sweden lost 0.8 percentage points, and Romania lost as much as 1 percentage point. Meanwhile, the European Commission maintained its November 2025 forecast for Poland, projecting GDP growth at 3.5 percent, supported by resilient private consumption and large investments financed from EU funds.
Experts from the Polish Economic Institute note that the EC has solid grounds for maintaining its projections. This is confirmed by macroeconomic data, including the flash estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2026, which indicates real growth of the Polish economy of 3.4 percent year on year. That result is consistent with the pace forecast for the entire year. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.5 percent quarter on quarter, confirming that the economy is maintaining a stable growth pace despite global turbulence.
KPO and investments keep us in the game. Inflation also helps
The stabilization and absorption of funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO) significantly support sustained growth. The EC highlights record absorption of KPO funds over the past year as a key factor maintaining investment momentum in Poland. Higher public investments co‑financed from EU funds are expected to balance the anticipated slowdown in private consumption in 2026, keeping overall growth dynamics at a solid level.
An additional ally turned out to be the May inflation reading, which positively surprised the market. Statistics Poland reported that the CPI inflation in May 2026 amounted to 3.1 percent year on year, compared to 3.2 percent in April, while the market expected a level of 3.7 percent. The Polish Economic Institute pointed to food prices as the source of the surprise, which fell by 1 percent month on month, despite the typical May increase in prices.
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