Poland’s LNG terminal in Świnoujście has just received its 450th delivery of liquefied natural gas, marking the 40th and final shipment of the first half of 2026. But behind this milestone lies a troubling statistic: the country’s growing dependence on American gas has reached record levels, exposing it to new and unexpected risks.
The second quarter of 2026 saw a record share of LNG cargoes from the United States. With 95% of all shipments in that period coming from a single supplier, Poland’s diversification strategy appears to have faltered. The cause was the military conflict in the Persian Gulf, which blocked the Strait of Hormuz and halted deliveries from Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter.
Since February 28, not a single Qatari cargo has reached Świnoujście. The last vessel, the Duhail, arrived on March 24. In its place, 19 American shipments and one from Trinidad and Tobago have been unloaded. Poland now relies on the US for nearly all its LNG imports, far above the European average of 57%.
The Qatar gap
The absence of Qatari gas is not just a matter of volume but also vessel size. Qatari Q-Flex tankers can carry up to 216,000 cubic meters of LNG, while smaller Atlantic-class vessels typically hold 155,000 to 180,000. In the first half of 2026, Poland received only four Qatari cargoes, down from seven a year earlier. This difference means that even if the total number of deliveries remains the same, the actual volume of gas received could be 100–200 million cubic meters less.
Qatar Energy has invoked force majeure, and although US President Donald Trump declared an end to hostilities, sporadic fighting continues in the region. Satellite imagery shows 13 LNG carriers waiting near Ras Laffan, including vessels that previously served Poland, but the resumption of deliveries remains uncertain.
Hurricane risk
Another danger lies in geography. The vast majority of US LNG terminals are located along the Gulf of Mexico, a region prone to Atlantic hurricanes. These storms can reach wind speeds exceeding 250 km/h and cause shutdowns lasting from days to two months, as history has shown.
Poland’s near-total reliance on US gas means that even without human intervention, supply disruptions could occur due to extreme weather. The country’s terminal is already operating at near full capacity, receiving a cargo every 4.5 days. To match last year’s 81 deliveries, Poland would need even more shipments this year, given the smaller size of Atlantic vessels.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. qatarenergy
