The Polish manufacturing PMI fell in August 2026 to 48.3 points from 49 points in July, S&P Global reported. Analysts had expected it to be 49.6 points. According to experts, the pace of decline in production and new orders is accelerating.
The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI is a composite index showing the health of the manufacturing sector as a single numerical value. It is calculated on the basis of five sub‑indices: new orders, production, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. It ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall improvement compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating an overall deterioration.
In August, the index remained below the neutral 50.0 threshold, indicating an overall deterioration in business conditions for the sixteenth consecutive month. The index fell from July’s 49.0 to 48.3, signalling a sharper decline. According to S&P Global experts, the PMI weakened due to faster declines in new orders and production, as well as a renewed drop in employment.
Supply chain delays and cost pressure
In August, economic conditions worsened again, but forecasts improved. Polish manufacturers continued to report deteriorating business conditions in the industry. Production and new orders fell at a faster pace, and employment was reduced. Cost pressure intensified due to the longest supply chain delays in more than four years.
Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at S&P Global, said that in August the deterioration in the Polish manufacturing sector intensified, with faster declines in production, new orders and a renewed fall in employment.
– After signs of easing supply chain pressures in July, the latest survey showed pressures intensifying, with average supplier delivery times lengthening to the greatest extent in more than four years – said Trevor Balchin.
In his view, this happened despite a further decline in purchasing activity, reflecting supply chain disruptions and raw material shortages. Production cost inflation rose for the first time in four months, and above the long‑term average. There was visible pressure on margins – output prices rose at a slower pace as companies tried to support sales despite rising costs. The only positive conclusion from the latest survey was a further improvement in 12‑month production expectations, although expectations remained weak compared to the long‑term trend.
Negative surprise for analysts
The drop in the Polish manufacturing PMI in August to 48.3 points from 49 points in July came as a negative surprise, and the result was lower than the most pessimistic forecasts, PKO BP emphasised in its commentary on the data. At the same time, the bank assessed that the survey poorly reflects the actual situation of the domestic industry, and therefore the unexpected readings should be treated with scepticism. According to the bank, a seasonal component can still be found in the data, even though the index is published as seasonally adjusted.
According to PKO BP, the PMI survey points to a deterioration in the manufacturing sector in August after an improvement in July. However, the bank believes that the real picture of the sector is much better, as indicated, among other things, by GUS data on industrial production, which rose by 5 percent year‑on‑year in July.
The PMI has remained below 50 points for sixteen months, meaning that Polish industry has been recording a continuous deterioration in business conditions since the beginning of 2025. The August decline is the lowest reading in several months. S&P Global analysts had expected the index to be 49.6 points, while the actual result turned out to be much weaker. The main factors negatively affecting the business climate are a decline in new orders, both domestic and export, and lengthening delivery times due to supply chain problems.
Cost pressure intensified for the first time in four months, indicating rising raw material and component prices. Despite this, Polish companies are unable to fully pass these costs on to output prices, putting pressure on margins. The only positive signal is an improvement in 12‑month producer expectations, although they remain below the long‑term average.
PKO BP points to a discrepancy between the PMI reading and GUS data, suggesting that the actual situation of industry may be better than the index indicates. Polish industry continues to face challenges related to global supply chain disruptions, high energy costs and weak demand in European markets. The coming months will show whether a recovery will occur or whether the downturn will deepen.
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