Wheat prices in Europe have surged to their highest level in about two years, rising nearly 20% in two weeks. The direct cause is escalating attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, disrupting grain exports from the region.
On Wednesday, September wheat futures reached 244.75 euros per tonne, up 10 euros in a single day. Just two weeks earlier, on July 8, the contract was trading at around 204.5 euros. The rally reflects mounting concerns over supply routes.
Russia has restricted shipping through the Azov Sea, which handles about a quarter of its grain exports. Meanwhile, Ukrainian port capacity near Odesa has been reduced by roughly one-third due to Russian strikes. Both countries together account for approximately one-third of global wheat exports, making any disruption in the Black Sea corridor immediately felt on international markets.
Geopolitical tensions and additional cost pressures
Beyond the immediate attacks, the market is also factoring in risks from weaker harvests in parts of Europe following heatwaves, as well as rising costs for fuel, fertilizers, freight, and insurance for vessels. Importers are already scrambling to secure supplies from alternative origins, further driving up prices.
– Disruptions in supply could once again become a factor driving up food prices – warned analysts.
Impact on consumers and inflationary outlook
For consumers, a 20% jump in wheat futures does not translate directly into a 20% increase in bread prices. Grain is just one component, alongside energy, labor, transport, packaging, and retail margins. However, the rally may halt the earlier downward trend in agricultural commodity costs and, after a few months, push up prices at mills, bakeries, and feed producers.
For now, the main signal is that the war is re-emerging as an inflationary force, not only through oil and gas but also through food. If the export disruptions prove temporary, part of the price increase could quickly reverse, but the situation remains highly uncertain.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock
