Wheat prices in Europe have surged to their highest level in about two years, rising nearly 20% in two weeks. The main driver is escalating attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ships and port infrastructure in the Black and Azov Seas, disrupting a key route for global grain supplies.
The September wheat contract on Euronext reached €244.75 per tonne on Wednesday, up €10 in a single day. Just two weeks earlier, on July 8, the contract was trading around €204.5, marking a near 20% increase. The immediate cause is the intensifying conflict at sea, with Russia restricting navigation through the Sea of Azov – which handles about a quarter of its grain exports – while Ukrainian port capacity near Odesa has been reduced by about one-third due to Russian attacks.
According to analysts, Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly one-third of global wheat exports. – Any disruption to shipping through this key route is quickly reflected in rising prices on the European market – said Rafał Hirsch, an economic journalist.
Geopolitical tensions and supply fears
The price spike is not only due to immediate attacks. Concerns over weaker harvests in parts of Europe following heatwaves, along with rising costs for fuel, fertilizers, freight, and insurance, add to the pressure. Importers are already scrambling for alternative sources, which pushes prices higher.
For consumers, a 20% jump in wheat futures does not mean an immediate 20% rise in bread prices. The cost of grain is just one component, alongside energy, labor, transport, packaging, and retail margins. However, the upward trend could halt the earlier decline in agricultural commodity prices and, after a few months, raise costs for mills, bakeries, and feed producers.
Warning signs for inflation
– This is primarily a signal that war is again becoming an inflationary factor, not only through oil and gas but also through food – said Rafał Hirsch, economic journalist. He added that if the export disruptions prove temporary, part of the price increase could quickly dissipate.
Nevertheless, the situation underscores the fragility of global food supply chains. The Black Sea corridor remains critical for Ukraine’s economy and for food security in many importing countries, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. Any prolonged blockade could have severe consequences.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock/Ievgen Postovyk
