Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India have turned back in the Red Sea after Houthi rebels announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. The threatened route was supposed to replace the almost completely paralyzed Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped to $92.3 per barrel, the highest since June 11.
The first vessel was carrying approximately 2 million barrels loaded at the Saudi port of Yanbu. The second had around 700,000 barrels destined for India. Both were heading south through the Red Sea toward the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Indian Ocean, but after Houthi warnings they turned north toward the Suez Canal. If they decide to take the longer route around Africa via the Mediterranean and Atlantic, delivery will be delayed by at least three to four weeks.
The Houthis have sent a notice to ship owners that any vessel calling at Saudi Arabian ports may be attacked anywhere. British maritime security firms have advised crews to reconsider travel through the Red Sea. War risk insurance premiums have also risen sharply.
Alternative route under threat
The Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea has been the main alternative to terminals in the Persian Gulf since March. Saudi Arabia can send oil there via a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. But if tankers cannot safely transit Bab al-Mandab, this export channel will also be severely limited.
Ships can still sail north through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean and then around Africa. For deliveries to Asia, however, this adds thousands of kilometers and several weeks to the journey. There is also an additional logistical problem with the Suez Canal. The largest tankers, when fully loaded with crude, simply cannot fit through, so they must pump part of the cargo and transport it via the Sumed pipeline to the Egyptian port of Alexandria on the Mediterranean, on the other side of the canal. This further raises costs, complicates logistics and consumes time.
Market impact and Polish fuel prices
Reuters estimates that a full closure of Bab al-Mandab could reduce global oil supply by around 7 percent, because a significant share of Saudi exports would not be able to leave the region. Even a partial disruption, however, would mean longer voyages, higher transport costs and less predictable deliveries.
The situation on global markets is already translating into further fuel price increases in Poland. Orlen raised diesel wholesale prices by another 3 groszy today, to the highest level since the beginning of May. Gasoline 95 rose by only 1 groszy in wholesale today, but has been the most expensive since December 2022 for several days.
The market now faces problems on two fronts simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz limits oil exports from the Persian Gulf, and Houthi threats hit the alternative route through the Red Sea. This increases the risk of further rises in oil and fuel prices as well as inflation in Europe.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock/Farzad Abdollahi
