The escalation of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region has heightened concerns about supply security and market uncertainty. The director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has now warned that the Bab el-Mandab strait, which is gaining importance as an alternative route bypassing Hormuz, could become a new source of instability.
According to Birol, oil markets are still cushioned by several factors, including significant deliveries from Persian Gulf producers, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which continue to reach global markets via alternative routes, as well as volumes that still manage to pass through Hormuz.
– We estimate that exports from the Persian Gulf are lower than their peaks from late June, but still significantly higher than the levels observed between early March and mid-June – wrote Fatih Birol in a statement published on the IEA website.
Amortizing factors at work
Producers from other regions, notably the United States, Brazil, Venezuela and Kazakhstan, have increased their exports, offsetting some of the losses from the Persian Gulf. On the demand side, China has played a key role by reducing its crude imports by almost 50% compared to pre-war levels, Birol recalled.
The continued release of emergency stocks by IEA member states has also provided considerable relief. Since the announcement of the coordinated action on March 11, which made 400 million barrels available, members have released around 290 million barrels, with more still flowing. Governments still hold over 1 billion barrels in reserve.
No room for complacency
Birol stressed that there is no room for complacency in oil security amid the military escalation and shrinking commercial inventories. He noted that refinery activity and product supplies have not improved as much as crude oil supplies, meaning markets for refined products like diesel and gasoline are much tighter than crude markets.
In the gas market, increased LNG flows from other regions, led by the United States and Canada, have compensated for about 70% of lost supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in restarting exports from the Persian Gulf risk keeping markets tight for longer. This will affect all LNG importers, including Europe, which plans to fill its gas storage for the coming winter.
The IEA maintains that a resolution of the ongoing conflict, including the full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is essential to prevent further deterioration of global energy security.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock
