Lithuania is set for a new government after the collapse of the ruling coalition. The Social Democrats have ditched their populist partner, the Dawn of Niemen, and are forming a new alliance with the Union of Democrats 'For Lithuania’. Polish politicians, including Justice Minister Rita Tamašunienė and Interior Minister Władysław Kondratowicz, will keep their posts.
President Gitanas Nausėda has started consultations with Mindaugas Sinkevičius, the Social Democrat leader tapped as prime minister. Under the constitution, the president has 15 days to present a candidate to the Seimas, who then has another 15 days to finalise the cabinet. The change follows months of friction within the old coalition, which controlled 75 seats in the 141-seat parliament.
The Dawn of Niemen, led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, frequently clashed with the Social Democrats. It opposed the construction of a new military training ground in Kopciovo near the Polish and Belarusian borders, calling it an unnecessary provocation. The party also stirred controversy with antisemitic statements. – The Dawn of Niemen party was supposed to be part of the ruling coalition but often acted as if in opposition – said Robert Mickiewicz, analyst and editor-in-chief of 'Kurier Wileński’. – They constantly criticised government initiatives, especially on security.
Coalition breakup and new alliance
The decision to dump the Dawn of Niemen came after the resignation of Saulius Skvernelis, the former leader of the Union of Democrats. Skvernelis stepped down amid corruption allegations, which opened the door for a new partnership between the Social Democrats and his party. – It was clear from the start that the Dawn of Niemen was unpredictable. Once Skvernelis, who was disliked by the Social Democrats, left, the obstacles to a new alliance disappeared – explained Rajmund Klonowski, a political analyst from Vilnius.
The new coalition also includes the Union of Lithuanian Peasants, Greens and Christian Families, which counts the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania as part of its group. The cabinet will see at least four ministerial changes, with the Democrats taking over agriculture, energy and health, and the Social Democrats taking the environment portfolio. Outgoing Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė will return to her previous role as minister of social security and labour.
Poles in the spotlight
Polish representation in the government remains strong. Justice Minister Rita Tamašunienė stays on, as does Interior Minister Władysław Kondratowicz. Robert Duchniewicz, a Pole and deputy chairman of the Social Democrats, continues as mayor of the Vilnius district. – We are the largest minority in Lithuania, so naturally we should be visible in politics. There were times when Poles could not advance in parties other than AWPL. That has changed – noted Mickiewicz.
Duchniewicz, who some speculated could be prime minister, was passed over because the party did not want to risk losing the mayor’s post in a key region. The growing presence of Poles reflects closer ties with Poland and an appreciation of bilingual skills. However, the legal status of Polish in public offices remains unchanged. – Introducing a second language in offices would require major legal changes. I am not convinced there is political support for this, especially because the bureaucratic class jealously guards its privileges – added Mickiewicz.
Foreign policy continuity and shifts
Lithuania’s foreign policy is set to remain largely unchanged, with Poland as a strategic partner. The Polish oil giant Orlen, which owns the Możejki refinery, is the largest foreign investor and taxpayer in the country. Relations with China are gradually thawing after the previous conservative government prioritised ties with Taiwan, leading to a freeze. Business pressure is pushing for a rapprochement with Beijing.
The fate of Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys is uncertain. He was pushed into the coalition by President Nausėda, who reportedly sees him as a potential successor. This does not sit well with the Social Democrats. The outgoing government had notable achievements: a record defence budget of 4.79 billion euro (5.38% of GDP), higher pensions and wages for public sector workers, and the passage of a law creating the new training ground in Kopciovo. The next cabinet will have to build on these while preparing for local elections in 2027 and parliamentary polls in 2028.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Adam Warżawa / PAP
