Wedged between Poland and Lithuania, Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast still forms a serious part of the security puzzle on NATO’s eastern flank. Moscow has moved part of its troops from the region to the Ukrainian front, yet strategic aviation and missile systems have stayed in place.
The exclave is a Russian region sealed off between Polish and Lithuanian territory. Supplies reach it through a transport corridor running across Lithuania, but that route is far from enough because of restrictions imposed by Vilnius and EU sanctions. The enclave’s authorities therefore have to arrange sea shipments from St Petersburg to deliver basic goods for slightly more than 1 million inhabitants.
The area’s past runs through the Baltic Prussians, the Teutonic Knights and the Duchy of Prussia, which began as a fief of Poland and later broke free, before ending up in the Kingdom of Prussia. The Red Army took control in 1945, and after World War II the former East Prussia province was carved up between Poland and the USSR.
A wedge driven between NATO states
Geography made this territory one of the most militarised parts of the USSR and later of Russia. Successive governments treated it as an operational base thrust far to the west of Europe. Moscow never produced another development plan for the Baltic exclave, yet today its strategic weight is plain to see.
The oblast works as a wedge inserted between NATO members. After Sweden and Finland joined the alliance, the Baltic coastline on Russian-controlled territory became the only stretch of that sea outside NATO’s reach. Attention is now fixed on Kaliningrad and the land around it.
In the event of open conflict between Russia and NATO, one concern stands out: the speed with which weapons of mass destruction could be fired from the exclave towards allied cities.
– There is no nuclear weapon stationed there at present, although its carriers are based there. These are strategic aviation and missile systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons even over distances of up to 5,000 km, so that danger potentially still exists – said Prof. Tadeusz Baryła, an expert on Eastern affairs.
– On top of that, Russia has by no means renounced aggressive plans towards its neighbours in the west, including Poland and the whole Baltic Sea region. That means we, as Poland, are in a zone of war threat – warned Tadeusz Baryła.
Combat experience and equipment aimed at the whole Baltic
He puts the number of soldiers currently stationed in the oblast at no more than 35,000. Units permanently based in the region have also been sent by Moscow to fight on the Ukrainian front, which raises the question of whether they could still threaten Poland.
– What matters is the degree of their preparation for a potential conflict. These troops undergo intensive training at ranges deep inside Russia. A large part of them also has longer or shorter episodes of combat in Ukraine behind them. One has to realise that this kind of combat experience is the surest type of preparation for a potential conflict with Poland and NATO – our interlocutor answered.
The expert also pointed to the Pregolya, the river that roughly splits the oblast in half. In an armed conflict it could serve as a defensive line for Russian forces, and equally as a point for concentrating and launching an attack on Poland or Lithuania.
– Moreover, more than eight years ago a line of fortifications along the oblast’s sea coast was expanded. These installations are also prepared for missile strikes across the entire Baltic. Equipment for jamming GPS signals has been developed there too, reaching as far as the North Pole and the Mediterranean in the south. This is a significant threat for all states lying on that sea – he listed.
Source: WNP.PL, Photo: Shutterstock/VLADJ55
