Iran is bracing for another round of American military strikes and says its answer will be stronger than anything seen so far. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran have yet to bring the expected results, and recent weeks have seen both sides talking up the prospect of escalation.
Reuters, citing representatives of the Iranian regime, reports that planning for a reply to possible US attacks began after President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York. A ceasefire has been in place since 8 April and is broken only sporadically, yet the rhetoric coming out of both capitals has hardened considerably in recent weeks.
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Reuters that Tehran still has no certainty about whether President Donald Trump will order another large-scale campaign or choose more limited strikes, such as hitting nuclear facilities. Iran, he argued, is determined not to meet symbolic moves with symbolic moves, and instead intends to escalate in the hope of restoring its deterrent effect.
Political risk in Washington
Tehran’s calculations take into account the political cost that a prolonged conflict carries for Trump. Surveys show the war does not enjoy the support of the American public, and rising fuel prices remain a source of concern shortly before the midterm elections.
The picture sketched for the agency points to a conflict that is becoming increasingly troublesome for the White House, with no clear diplomatic exit in sight and military options carrying their own price.
Support beyond the region
Officials from the Iranian administration, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, say Iran’s answer could draw on backing from combat groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Targets linked to America’s allies, the same sources indicate, may also be struck outside the Middle East, widening the potential geography of any retaliation.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH / PAP
