The coming summer does not have to break temperature records to test the resilience of Polish cities. After an extremely warm March and a critically dry April, long-range forecasts from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) leave no room for complacency. Local governments must prepare for a season of elevated risk where the real threat lies not in a single heatwave but in the accumulation and succession of various weather extremes.
This year’s spring already delivered a harsh test. According to IMGW-PIB data, March 2026 was the third warmest March since 1951, with a mean area temperature of 6.4°C – 3.3 degrees above the 1991–2020 norm. At the same time, total precipitation reached merely 10.8 mm, a deficit of 27 mm, making it the third driest March in the history of instrumental measurements. April, despite a cooldown, did not ease water stress: the mean area rainfall was only 11 mm, which is 30.2% of the norm and the third lowest April value ever recorded.
Long-term experimental forecasts for June–September 2026 indicate that mean monthly temperatures across Poland will likely be above the multi-year norm, while total precipitation for those months is expected to stay within normal range. – Seasonal forecasts must be read with caution. They show the most probable direction of change relative to the climate norm. 'Warmer than usual’ does not mean a continuous heatwave, and 'precipitation within normal range’ does not rule out either local torrential rains or long dry spells, especially since seasonal precipitation forecasts are far less precise than temperature ones – said dr inż. Amadeusz Walczak, senior environmental consultant at Multiconsult Polska, who specialises in urban climate adaptation plans. – Summer 2026 may be warmer than the norm, but above all it may be variable and dynamic: with periodic heatwaves, atmospheric fronts, storms, intense rainfall and temporary cool spells. This is not yet a prediction of disaster, but for cities it still signals a season of elevated risk – he added.
Localised threats require local responses
Multiconsult Polska analyses show that the impacts of climate change are highly local. In Rzeszów, Gdańsk and Opole, a common warming trend is visible, but regional differences are stark. Opole and Rzeszów record over 60 hot days per year (max temperature above 25°C), whereas Gdańsk sees only 21–24 such days. Precipitation also diverges: in the last analysed decade, annual totals dropped to about 564 mm in Rzeszów and 550 mm in Opole, while Gdańsk remained above 600 mm. Opole averaged 275 days without rain per year, suggesting a growing frequency of dry spells.
– There is no one-size-fits-all recipe for climate resilience because climate change and its effects do not unfold identically across Poland. Coastal cities face different trends and threats than central Poland, where drought and water deficits grow, or the southern part, potentially more exposed to intense rainfall, floods and violent storms. Consequently, in some locations the priority will be mitigating urban heat islands, in others it will be increasing retention, redesigning drainage systems, expanding green areas or strengthening emergency procedures – said dr inż. Amadeusz Walczak.
Cities under pressure – and residents feel it
Since every city deals with a different combination of hazards, the response must be local, data-driven and translated into concrete investments. From 2025, municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants are obliged to prepare local adaptation plans based on analyses of meteorological and hydrological phenomena. These plans should indicate specific measures: how to develop greenery, increase water retention, manage rainwater and mitigate the effects of heat, drought or local flooding.
The need is recognised not only by city authorities but also by residents. A 2025 survey by Biostat commissioned by Multiconsult Polska found that 85% of Poles personally experience the effects of climate change. Respondents most often pointed to warmer winters and drier summers (73%), while 48% mentioned violent weather events such as storms, strong winds or floods, and 31% noted changes in nature. Local governments are not asking whether cities should adapt. The question is how quickly they can turn strategies into actions that protect inhabitants from an ever more dynamic climate.
– The necessity of urban adaptation is an infrastructural, social and financial challenge. Heatwaves are a health risk and a strain on the energy system; drought worsens the condition of green spaces; intense rainfall reveals weak points in sewage networks and public spaces. A well-prepared plan makes it possible to limit costs before a crisis hits – concluded dr inż. Amadeusz Walczak.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Jose Rodriguez Ortega / Pexels
