Poland is treating Ukrainian immigrants the same way Britain once treated Polish immigrants. Nearly 900,000 Ukrainians are now insured in Poland, but rising populism and cuts to social benefits may drive them away, threatening the economy.
According to the latest ZUS data, the number of insured Ukrainians in Poland reached 891,500 at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of over 10 percent. They work mainly in industrial processing, construction, logistics, and services. However, the Barometer of the Polish Labor Market 2026 study shows that 38 percent of Ukrainians do not plan to return to their homeland after the war, while 17 percent want to return as soon as possible, and another 16 percent consider returning within one to two years after hostilities end.
Parallels with British immigration policy
The growing needs of the Polish economy clash with rising populism fueled by historical disputes. Social benefit policies, such as the 800+ program for Ukrainian children, are being questioned. Dr. Jacek Kucharczyk, a sociologist from the Institute of Public Affairs, draws a direct parallel: – British expectations were simple: they wanted cheap labor without bearing additional costs, such as social aid. Today it is clear that this was a short-sighted and mistaken policy. –
According to the expert, phasing out social programs for Ukrainians will negatively impact the Polish economy if the workers decide to return to Ukraine or move further west. The Ukrainian government is also encouraging its citizens to return, with apps like „Dodomu” presented at the recent Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk.
Economic consequences of populist policies
Poland has become heavily dependent on Ukrainian labor. Almost 900,000 workers fill gaps in key sectors. Yet public sentiment and political rhetoric are turning against them. The risk is that a short-term political gain from cutting benefits will lead to a long-term labor shortage, undermining growth.
The situation mirrors Britain’s treatment of Polish immigrants after 2004. Back then, the UK opened its labor market but offered minimal social support, seeing Poles as temporary workers. Many eventually stayed, but the policy created tensions and missed opportunities for integration. Poland now faces the same dilemma with Ukrainians.
If Ukrainian workers leave, businesses in construction, logistics, and manufacturing will struggle. Already, some companies report difficulties in finding staff. The Ukrainian labor market itself is also recovering, and Kyiv is actively luring back its citizens. Without a clear integration strategy, Poland risks losing a vital resource at a time when the economy needs it most.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. EPA/BRYAN MEADE / PAP
