Natural gas prices have jumped by over 50 percent in just one month, raising concerns about future heating costs. However, the new tariffs will not affect Polish households until at least January 2027, as the current regulated rate remains in force until the end of 2026.
On the Polish Power Exchange, gas for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2026 reached 284 PLN per megawatt-hour on Wednesday. A month earlier the same contract was trading at less than 200 PLN, marking a rise of more than 40 percent. The September contract surged even more sharply, climbing from 182 PLN in mid-June to 281 PLN.
– This is happening with monthly contracts – deliveries in September have gone up by over 50 percent – noted Rafał Hirsch, energy market analyst.
Households shielded until 2027
Poland is not an exception. The benchmark Dutch TTF gas price rose to 62.87 euro per MWh on Wednesday, a 50 percent increase from a month earlier. The spike reflects mounting anxiety about supply security ahead of the winter heating season.
Despite the wholesale rally, household bills remain untouched. The current tariff of myOrlen – the retail arm of Orlen Group serving over 7 million homes and 250 thousand business clients – stands at 197.29 PLN/MWh and is valid until the end of 2026. Business customers pay 196.91 PLN/MWh under their own tariff. Both rates were approved by the Energy Regulatory Office and will not change until new tariffs are introduced on 1 January 2027.
Europe’s storage levels raise concern
The price surge is driven by fears over insufficient gas in storage before the heating season. European underground gas storage facilities are currently about 54 percent full. This is the second weakest level for this time of year in the last 15 years and significantly below the five-year average.
– Droższy gaz może podnosić koszty ogrzewania, produkcji energii, nawozów i działalności przemysłu – reads the analysis from WNP.PL.
If high wholesale prices persist, the next tariff revision could bring substantial increases for Polish households and businesses. For now, the regulated price acts as a buffer, but market signals are clear: the era of cheap gas is over.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock/dimm3d
