Polish drivers are facing another sharp rise in fuel prices this week, with 95-octane petrol expected to go up by another 0.21 PLN to 7.30 PLN per litre and diesel by as much as 0.57 PLN to 7.90 PLN per litre, according to brokerage Reflex. The increases come as the government makes clear it will not revive the CPN fuel subsidy programme, citing budget constraints and a high deficit.
Last week both fuels already breached the 7 PLN threshold – the highest since mid-April for diesel and late March for petrol. In wholesale trade, 95-octane petrol is now the most expensive since December 2022, signalling further retail hikes ahead. Brent crude oil rose above 90 dollars a barrel this morning for the first time in six weeks, driven by renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Russian ban on fuel exports is tightening global supply.
Government rules out new subsidy programme
Since the CPN programme was ended in late June, Brent is up 24%, wholesale petrol at Orlen has risen 11% and diesel 15%. At the pump, petrol has increased by about 1.17 PLN and diesel by 1.27 PLN – roughly 20% in both cases. Despite this, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has signalled no return to the scheme. “We cannot endlessly pour money from the budget into keeping fuel prices low. The budget’s endurance also has its limits,” he said at his Friday briefing.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański added on TVN24: “We must clearly state that Poland currently has a high budget deficit, which is linked to our enormous defence spending.” Preliminary June budget data showed a nearly 9% drop in VAT revenue year-on-year, largely due to the CPN programme. After six months, the deficit stands at 123.7 billion PLN, making a return to fuel subsidies highly unlikely. The government may try to influence Orlen’s pricing policy, but for now the burden of increases is falling on the market and drivers.
SpaceX loses a trillion dollars in market value
SpaceX shares fell by 5.4% on Friday to 123.99 dollars, cutting the company’s market value to 1.63 trillion dollars. On 16 June, the third day of public trading, it had reached 2.64 trillion dollars. In one month, over a trillion dollars of market capitalisation has evaporated. The stock is now also below its IPO price of 135 dollars.
The nominal loss is spectacular, but must be read correctly: SpaceX did not lose a trillion dollars in cash, and its balance sheet is intact. The market simply values its shares a trillion lower than at the most euphoric post-IPO moment. The company still ranks tenth globally by market cap, but the correction shows how much optimism investors had baked into the price of a firm combining rockets, satellites, Starlink and AI activities. The decline is not isolated: the Nasdaq 100 fell to its lowest since June 9, and the US semiconductor index is about 20% below its June record. Investors are questioning whether huge AI spending will yield sufficient returns.
Inflation in Poland and the euro area
According to Eurostat, Polish HICP inflation fell to 3% year-on-year in June, from 3.3% in May and 3.4% a year ago. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.3%. Poland is now close to the EU average of 2.9%, while the euro area rate dropped from 3.2% to 2.8%. The decline was recorded in 22 EU states. However, the data do not yet reflect the recent surge in oil and fuel prices or the full effect of the CPN programme’s end. July’s reading may therefore be higher even if underlying price pressure continues to ease.
Healthcare reforms: pay and working time controls
The Health Ministry has announced four draft regulations. One will expand central e-registration to 39 specialisations at twice the originally planned speed. Another introduces maximum levels of hospital spending on staff remuneration. A third obliges facilities to provide the National Health Fund (NFZ) with actual work schedules, and a fourth aims to improve monitoring of admissions and waiting lists. Two laws are being prepared: one to increase transparency in health service tenders, another to regulate employment rules, introduce maximum pay levels from public funds, and strengthen NFZ control powers. The president has already signed a law allowing more precise data collection on medical staff earnings based on PESEL numbers or professional licence codes.
The move is a response to system pathologies: doctors formally working in several places at once, huge contract sums, and queues that do not match actual working schedules. Reporting real schedules and identifying individual salaries gives the NFZ tools to verify whether services could actually have been delivered in the declared time. Yet this does not solve the fundamental financial problem of healthcare. Control can reduce abuses and improve use of some resources, but it will not replace the money needed to cover the growing deficit of the NFZ, which is set to widen due to an ageing population and no political will to raise the health insurance contribution. Limits on pay and working time may also have side effects if the best specialists move to the private sector.
Brussels eases the ETS for industry
The European Commission has proposed reforming the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to reconcile climate goals with industrial competitiveness. The most direct relief is an increase in free allowances for energy-intensive industries worth about 6 billion euros until 2030. In sectors covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the phasing out of free allowances will be slowed, ending only at the end of 2037. From 2031, free allowances will be tied to specific decarbonisation investment plans in the EU: a company receives 80% after presenting an approved plan, and the remaining 20% after showing that investments have been made and delivered significant emission reductions. The investment value must be at least equal to the full value of the free allowances received.
The Commission also wants member states to allocate at least half of ETS auction revenues to decarbonisation. Currently, only about 5% of these funds go directly to energy-intensive sectors, which account for nearly half of the system’s emissions. For Poland, this is a favourable adjustment, as its energy and industry are still more emission-intensive than in most EU countries, buying relatively many allowances. The government presents the proposal as recognition of Poland’s special situation and is pushing for even slower reduction of allowance supply. However, the longer firms are shielded from the full emission cost, the weaker the pressure to modernise. The Commission has not proposed any changes to the ETS2 system, which will raise fuel costs for transport and heating. According to the NBP’s recent inflation projection, ETS2 could add as much as two percentage points to Polish inflation when it takes effect in 2028.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Andrzej Jackowski / PAP
