Polish wholesale fuel prices have moved sharply lower for the first time in over four months, after signals from Washington and Doha about a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Orlen cut 95-octane petrol by 24 groszy per litre and diesel by 20 groszy, reviving hope that pump prices may soon fall below 7 and 8 zloty.
The previous cut of this scale came on March 30, when an excise reduction under the CPN programme took effect. This time the driver is market, not state intervention. Brent crude dropped as much as 6 percent on Tuesday to below $79 a barrel, its lowest level in three weeks, and has now lost almost 18 percent since July 23. European diesel futures fell about 6 percent during the day and are down 14 percent from the end of July. Polish wholesale prices, however, had moved only a few percent from their recent highs, so if the global slide continues there is room for further local reductions.
In the short term, calculations based on wholesale levels and 23 percent VAT suggest 95-octane petrol could go below 7 zloty per litre and diesel below 8 zloty. Whether that actually appears at the pumps depends on how much margin stations decide to add. For the government, the timing is convenient: ministers are discussing a possible return of the Ceny Paliwa Niżej scheme in the second half of August, with options ranging from tax cuts to pressure on Orlen to finance promotions out of its own margin. Each route carries a cost, either for the budget, for Orlen shareholders, or both.
Hormuz talk rattles oil and fuel markets
Officials in the United States and Qatar have suggested that a short-term agreement with Iran and the unblocking of the strait could happen very quickly. Iran is also considering letting European countries take part in demining the shipping lane, which would give vessel owners and insurers outside proof that navigation is safe again. If oil stays around $78-80 and the diesel slump continues, the government may avoid intervention altogether and simply say that the market solved the problem. That would be the best outcome for the finance minister, because drivers would see lower prices while tax revenue and the state budget remain untouched.
Zloty rides improved global mood
The euro fell below 4.30 zloty on Tuesday for the first time in about a month, ending the day near 4.2988, while the dollar was around 3.73 zloty. Polish bonds strengthened and Warsaw stock indices hit fresh records. The zloty benefited from a broader improvement in risk appetite, as falling oil prices eased fears of another inflation wave. A large interest rate differential still supports Polish assets, and the recent US-Japanese currency intervention also weakened the euro because it involved selling euros to buy yen.
The next move depends mainly on US jobs data due on Friday. Strong numbers would raise expectations of a Fed rate hike, push US yields up and probably strengthen the dollar, which usually hurts the zloty. Weaker data could take EUR/PLN toward 4.27-4.28. The second condition is the Middle East. If talks on Hormuz collapse, oil will jump and investors will again seek safety in dollars, quickly pushing the euro back above 4.30-4.32 zloty.
Polish power system strains under heat
The heatwave is now hitting Polish power generation. Low water levels on the Vistula have forced Enea to limit operations at its two biggest plants: around noon on Tuesday, three units in Kozienice and three in Połaniec were out of service. Cooling water shortages accounted for roughly 1.1 GW of unavailable capacity. Polish grid operator PSE activated the demand response market for 17:00-19:00, the second such call this year after June 30, asking contracted power plants, storage and flexible consumers to step in during peak demand.
Day-ahead prices for Wednesday show how extreme the swing is. Around 13:00, with solar generation at its strongest, electricity is contracted for just 1.37 zloty per MWh. At 20:00, after photovoltaic output fades and air conditioners are still running, the price reaches 2202.13 zloty per MWh. Households will not pay that amount directly because tariffs and most contracts are fixed, but the spread is a clear sign that Poland needs more sources of flexibility available after sunset, not just more installed capacity.
No PIT promise and a costly AI bet
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański was asked on RMF FM whether the government would raise the second PIT threshold, stuck at 120,000 zloty since 2022. He responded that the ministry is working on the 2027 budget and analysing tax changes, but said it was too early to confirm a move. On raising the tax-free amount from 30,000 to 60,000 zloty, he only said analyses are underway. Increasing the second threshold would cover over 2 million taxpayers but cost more than a dozen billion zloty annually, a serious obstacle with the public finance deficit above 7 percent of GDP. His cautious wording suggests the change is not currently a firm commitment.
Separately, SpaceX reported its first quarterly results since the June IPO. Revenue jumped 92 percent to $7.8 billion, beating forecasts of under $7 billion, while the operating loss shrank from $970 million to $143 million. Starlink revenue grew 66 percent, subscribers doubled to 12 million, and AI-related revenue rose about 250 percent. Elon Musk insisted the company is rapidly building computing power. Yet the stock dropped 7.6 percent after hours: capital expenditure exploded from $2.83 billion to over $18 billion in one quarter, with $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure versus $749 million a year earlier. The CFO signalled similar spending for the next two quarters, and the first IPO lockup expires on Thursday. SpaceX is now worth about $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $1.75 trillion at its debut. Investors are questioning whether Musk’s ambitions will deliver the required return on that enormous bill.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
