The Polish government has again failed to announce a return to the CPN fuel-price programme, despite a meeting between the prime minister and finance minister on the issue. Wholesale fuel prices, meanwhile, continued to fall for another day.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański met Donald Tusk to discuss possible intervention, but no decision followed. Domański told TVN24 that a partial VAT reduction is still an option if the oil market turns worse.
– If the situation on the fuel and crude markets deteriorated again, it would still be possible to lower VAT for a period, for example for the last two weeks of the holidays. With excise tax, it would already be much more difficult now – said Finance Minister Andrzej Domański.
Deputy Finance Minister Jarosław Neneman had already said on TOK FM that excise will not be cut, because VAT can be changed by regulation while excise needs a new act, and the Sejm has no sessions scheduled in August. A monthly VAT cut on fuel would cost around PLN 1 billion, so two weeks of holidays would cost roughly PLN 0.5 billion.
Market does half the work for the government
Brent crude fell more than 5% on Tuesday, dropping below $80 a barrel, and stayed there on Wednesday thanks to hopes for a deal on the Strait of Hormuz and a recovery in exports from the Gulf states. Following global markets, Orlen lowered wholesale gasoline by 12 groszy per litre and diesel by 21 groszy on Thursday; a day earlier both fuels fell by more than 20 groszy.
Since the July 22 peak, wholesale gasoline has dropped by 53 groszy, while diesel is down 50 groszy from its August 1 high. A VAT cut would lower retail prices by about PLN 1, meaning the market has already delivered half of that move without any government decision. Retail stations usually follow wholesale with a delay, so pump prices should soon start falling, making it easier for the cabinet to say the intervention is no longer needed.
Banks drag Warsaw indexes after record run
Warsaw’s WIG20 broke above 4,000 points in early trading, setting a new all-time high of 4,009.34, but the session ended with slight losses. Since July 1, WIG has risen 12%, and WIG20 by 11.8%, leaving the market vulnerable to a correction.
The pullback was led by banks, with Erste Bank Polska down 3.4%, Alior down 5.5%, mBank down 2%, and Pekao SA and PKO BP falling nearly 1%. With no official negative news for banks, investors began speculating that the government might raise the corporate tax on lenders as it works on next year’s budget and seeks to cut the deficit. A few weeks ago, politicians from the ruling coalition floated that idea in the media. The market weighed three possibilities: coincidence, speculation on a hypothetical scenario, or larger investors acting on unofficial information.
Polish nuclear site handed to Bechtel
Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe has formally handed over the site of Poland’s first nuclear plant to Bechtel, the US general contractor. Bechtel becomes the formal host of the construction site and will coordinate work, subcontractors and safety, but reactor construction has not started yet.
The current phase covers site preparation on more than 300 hectares, about 16 km of temporary roads and 6 km of drainage ditches, with Budimex as the main earthworks contractor. The work is scheduled to last until early 2029. More than 200 people are already on site, and further tenders worth around PLN 1.7 billion are under way. Since 2020, PEJ has signed contracts with about 475 Polish firms worth over PLN 1.2 billion.
The nuclear licence application is before the National Atomic Energy Agency, which has up to 24 months to decide; a separate building permit will be issued by the Pomeranian voivode. First nuclear concrete is planned for Q4 2028. The Lubiatowo-Kopalino plant is to have three AP1000 units with total capacity of 3,750 MW, entering commercial operation in 2036 and 2037-2038.
The handover coincides with trouble for European nuclear plants during extreme heat. Slovenia’s Krško plant has cut output to 80% of nominal capacity because the Sava river is low and warm. Krško has one 696 MW net reactor, supplies about a quarter of Slovenia’s electricity and about 15% of Croatia’s demand. Environmental rules require the average river temperature after mixing to stay below 28 degrees and the plant to add no more than 3 degrees. Cooling towers help but reduce efficiency. The plant last faced such hydrological limits in 2003, when restrictions lasted about 90 days. Slovenia is the third country in the region after Romania and Hungary to report nuclear cooling problems, while France has also limited some reactors. Poland’s future plant will use Baltic Sea water, so river temperature limits will not apply.
Car market posts best July of the century
New passenger car registrations in Poland reached 56,205 in July, up 11.8% year on year, and with light commercial vehicles the total hit 62,446, also up nearly 12%, according to IBRM Samar. This was the best July result in the 21st century, although registrations fell about 6% from June in a usual seasonal pattern.
After seven months, 412,315 cars and vans were registered, up 10.2%, with passenger cars alone at 368,253, up 9.7%. Samar raised its full-year forecast for passenger cars to about 645,000 from 635,000. Chinese brands increased their market share to a record 15.5% in July from 14.9% in June, with Omoda up more than 111% year on year. Electric car share dropped to 4.2% from 5.1%, as growth is driven by company fleets, hybrids and affordable Chinese models. Toyota, Skoda and Volkswagen lead the market with over 30% combined share, and adding BMW, Kia, Audi and Mercedes takes the top seven above 50%. The most popular models are Toyota Corolla, Skoda Octavia and Kia Sportage.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/Radek Pietruszka
