A sharp drop in oil prices is reshaping global interest rate expectations, with economists scaling back predictions of aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Brent crude has fallen to $74 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increases, easing fears of a prolonged supply disruption from the Persian Gulf. This reduces the risk that an energy shock will trigger another sustained wave of inflation.
Until recently, several banks forecast multiple consecutive rate hikes by the ECB. Now, most anticipate only one increase in September, while the probability of a move in July has dropped to around 30 percent. Oxford Economics and Capital Economics now expect no further tightening after June’s initial hike. Nomura and RBC Capital Markets have trimmed their forecasts to just one more increase.
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel still argues that rates must rise to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target, but she stressed that the scale and timing depend on the conflict, economic conditions and incoming price data. President Christine Lagarde sees no need for a rapid response, and chief economist Philip Lane advocates a measured reaction to the energy shock.
Polish bonds rally as healthcare costs mount
Falling rate expectations have also boosted Polish government bonds. The yield on 10-year Polish bonds has dropped to around 5.34 percent, the lowest since early March and down from above 6 percent on May 20. This lowers the government’s borrowing costs and could gradually reduce the price of credit for businesses and households.
Meanwhile, Poland’s National Health Fund (NFZ) will need an additional 4.5 billion zloty in the second half of 2026 to cover rising costs, according to the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System (AOTMiT). The increase stems from statutory annual raises for medical staff, linked to average wage growth—this year, wages will rise by 8.82 percent from July 1. The minimum salary for a specialist doctor will reach 12,910 zloty gross, up by 1,047 zloty.
Health Minister Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda assured that the raises will be implemented, but the source of funding remains unclear. If NFZ does not receive a larger budget subsidy, hospitals may have to absorb the costs or take on more debt, pushing the burden onto either individual facilities or the state budget.
Micron’s AI-fueled surge and the cost to others
Micron Technology’s shares jumped 15.7 percent on Thursday, briefly pushing its market capitalization above $1.4 trillion—larger than Tesla and Meta Platforms. The rally came after the chipmaker reported massive demand for memory used in AI data centers and servers. Customers have committed to $22 billion in chip purchases to secure supply, especially for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that powers Nvidia’s GPUs.
Micron’s operating margins are approaching levels typical of the most profitable tech firms, thanks to limited suppliers and soaring demand. However, rising memory costs are squeezing other players. Apple raised prices on iPads and MacBooks, blaming higher memory expenses, and its stock fell over 6 percent. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 0.5 percent, as investors worry that huge AI investments financed by debt may not yield expected returns.
Senate reins in windfall tax on fuel companies
Poland’s Senate has introduced two amendments to the bill imposing a 60 percent windfall tax on fuel producers and importers for excess profits from March to December 2026. The tax, expected to generate around 4 billion zloty, is meant to fund a package capping fuel prices after the outbreak of war with Iran.
One amendment caps the tax at the level of a company’s actual income for PIT/CIT purposes or, for non-taxpayers, at its book profit. This prevents a situation where a firm with high margins on fuel sales but overall low profits would owe more than it earned. The bill now returns to the Sejm, which will decide whether to accept or reject the changes.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Pixabay/HoustonRS
