The Strait of Hormuz has officially reopened, sending oil and fuel prices sharply lower. According to Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka, even if the government restores the higher VAT rate on fuels, diesel should remain below 7 zlotys per litre. The global oil market is awash with supply as tankers queue to leave the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude has stayed below $80 a barrel for three consecutive days. European diesel benchmark dipped to around $860 per tonne, the lowest since early March. PKN Orlen has responded by cutting wholesale prices: gasoline 95 fell by 6 groszy per litre, diesel by 7 groszy. The maximum retail prices for the weekend stand at 5.94 zlotys for gasoline and 6.12 zlotys for diesel.
– As for the VAT rate, it will go up, but wholesale prices are likely to absorb the increase, with only a few groszy difference at the pump – said Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka in an interview with Radio Zet. He added that prices should return to levels seen before the Middle East crisis.
According to data from analytics firm Kpler, nearly 170 million barrels of crude are waiting on tankers in the Persian Gulf, almost half of it Iranian. Kuwejt announced it would soon restore production to over 2 million barrels per day, while China is entering a refinery maintenance season that may temporarily reduce global demand.
Still, market sentiment remains fragile. On Thursday evening, Brent jumped $2 after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance criticised Israeli attacks on Lebanon, raising doubts about the durability of the Iran‑U.S. agreement.
Warsaw’s housing deficit may be much bigger than official data suggests
According to a report by real estate advisory firm JLL, Warsaw lacks between 180,000 and 200,000 apartments. This contrasts sharply with GUS statistics, which show a surplus of about 145,000 homes. JLL argues that official population figures underestimate the true number of people who would like to live in the capital, including unregistered foreigners, commuters, and young adults still living with parents (the so-called “gniazdnicy”).
Not all counted housing units are available either – many are vacant, dilapidated, or used as investments. Even if Warsaw sustains its recent record of 20,000 completions a year, filling the gap would take nine to ten years, and the deficit will grow as demand rises.
Consumer confidence improves slightly, while Russia’s debt burden mounts
According to the latest GUS survey, Polish consumer sentiment edged up in June. For the first time in a year, the share of optimists about household finances (18%) nearly equals pessimists (19%). Still, 40% expect the national economy to worsen, though that is down from almost 50% in March. Inflation expectations eased, but fear of rising unemployment remains high at 41.6%.
In Russia, Bloomberg reports that the cost of servicing sovereign debt is ballooning. With the economy stagnant and war spending soaring, Moscow is issuing domestic bonds at yields exceeding 15%. Interest payments now consume 9% of the budget, and over the next decade they could total at least 15% of GDP.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. PAP/Marcin Bielecki
