The National Bank of Poland’s latest inflation projection shows a calm path – 2.9% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028 – but it does not include the full impact of the new EU emissions trading system for fuels and heating. According to the central bank’s own estimates, ETS2 could add as much as 2 percentage points to inflation in 2028.
Jacek Kotłowski, director of the NBP’s Economic Analysis and Research Department, said that introducing ETS2 in its current form could push Polish inflation up by around 2 percentage points in 2028. Combined with the official projection of 2.2%, the rate could climb to about 4.2% – above the upper bound of the NBP’s tolerance band around its 2.5% target.
“We estimate the direct effect at about 1.5-1.6 percentage points and the indirect effect at about 0.4-0.5 percentage points, resulting from higher energy prices,” Kotłowski said at a press conference. He added that the calculations assume a CO2 permit price of €59 per tonne – while current market prices are around €79.
Why the NBP left ETS2 out of its baseline scenario
The central bank explains that ETS2 is not formally included because Poland has not yet transposed the system into national law. Technically, this is understandable – the NBP normally avoids basing its core forecast on solutions whose final shape remains uncertain. But the omission does not make the risk disappear. For ordinary Poles, ETS2 could mean higher costs at the pump, higher heating bills, and indirectly higher prices for transport and many services.
The issue also feeds into the debate over interest rates. Until recently, NBP governor Adam Glapiński had opened the door to a rate cut after the summer. But not all Monetary Policy Council members agree. Henryk Wnorowski said he “sees little chance” of a cut this year, and if one happens, it would be at most one and not before September. “I see a huge problem with supporting such a motion today,” Wnorowski stated on BIZNES24.
Baltic Power delivers first electricity, fuel prices surge
Meanwhile, Poland’s energy landscape saw a milestone: the first electricity from the Baltic Power offshore wind farm flowed into the grid. Orlen, a co-owner, said 54 of 76 turbines are installed, with completion expected by autumn. The 1.2 GW farm will produce about 4 TWh annually – enough for 1.5 million households. Offshore wind is set to reach 6 GW by 2030, reshaping the national power mix.
On fuel stations, drivers face another week of increases. According to BM Reflex, petrol Pb95 may hit around PLN 6.95 per litre and diesel PLN 7.20 – rises of 10 and 21 groszy respectively in a week. Since the end of June, petrol is up over PLN 1 per litre, diesel almost PLN 1.20. Global crude prices are up 8.6% since late June due to renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf, while a Russian export ban on diesel is tightening global supply – indirectly affecting European markets even though the EU no longer imports Russian diesel directly.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. PAP/Leszek Szymański
