Up to half of all jobs in the European Union’s automotive industry could disappear by 2040 due to the forced shift to electric vehicles, according to new research from the Fraunhofer Institute. The study, commissioned by German metal and electrical industry employers’ association Gesamtmetall, predicts a net loss of around 726,000 positions and a drop of €95 billion in added value across the bloc. While most traditional manufacturing countries face severe losses, Poland – depending on the scenario – could emerge as one of the few winners.
The report sees the current EU regulation mandating a ban on new internal combustion engine cars from 2035 as the main driver of the decline. “Current EU regulations accelerating the switch to pure battery-electric passenger cars by 2035 will result in the loss of around 726,000 jobs (-45%) and a decline of around €95 billion (-38%) in added value compared to 2025 in the European automotive industry by 2040,” the study states.
Massive losses in the south, resilience in the east
The impact varies dramatically by country. Austria and Italy are hit hardest, with value added plummeting by 94% and 90% respectively by 2040. France follows with a 73% drop. Germany, despite a slightly smaller relative decline of 64%, suffers the largest absolute loss – €54.2 billion. “High taxes and levies, expensive energy, high labor costs, excessive bureaucracy” – these are the reasons why new jobs are being created in other countries, not in Germany, said the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). According to VDA, Germany has already lost 100,000 automotive jobs since 2019 and could lose another 125,000 by 2035.
Poland stands out with an estimated loss of only 5% of its automotive value added, about €1 billion. The Fraunhofer Institute barely explains this resilience, but the pattern suggests that lower-cost EU member states are attracting production shifts from high-cost ones. Hungary is the biggest gainer in relative terms, with an 83% increase (€18.1 billion), followed by the Czech Republic with a 30% rise (€4.5 billion). Spain also gains 7% (€1.2 billion).
Poland could gain 190% under a reform scenario
The report also models a more optimistic scenario – one that assumes far-reaching reforms inside the EU: energy costs brought to within 20% of US levels, approval times cut to three years, labor market reforms, and drastic bureaucracy reduction. In that scenario, “highly automated and technologically advanced production lines (complex transmissions, electric motors, power electronics, battery component production) remain in a few high-performance clusters in Germany and Central Eastern Europe,” the study says. Under these conditions, Poland’s automotive added value could leap by 190%, Hungary by 300%, and Spain by 100%. German firms would grow by just 6%. However, the report notes that such a scenario “seems extremely unlikely from today’s perspective” as it would require very deep reforms in the way the European Union operates.
The authors underline that even without a full combustion ban, Europe’s share in global auto sales would shrink from about a quarter today to 18% by 2040. The difference lies in how much of the value chain stays in Europe. Either way, Italy, Austria, and France face structural declines, while Poland, Hungary, and Spain have the most to gain – if they can seize the opportunity.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PTWP
