The European automotive industry could lose nearly half of its 1.6 million jobs by 2040 due to the EU’s ban on new combustion engine cars. While most member states face deep losses, Poland stands out as one of the few countries that could actually gain – but only under certain conditions.
A study commissioned by Gesamtmetall, the German metal and electrical employers’ association, and conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute paints a grim picture. According to the research, the current EU regulations pushing for a full switch to battery-electric passenger cars by 2035 will result in the loss of around 726,000 jobs in the European automotive sector by 2040. This represents a 45% drop in employment compared to 2025 levels. The value added by the industry is expected to fall by €95 billion, or 38%.
The scale of the job losses across Europe
Germany alone has already lost 100,000 automotive jobs since 2019, and the VDA, the German automotive industry association, warns that a further 125,000 could disappear by 2035 – 35,000 more than previously forecast. – High taxes, expensive energy, excessive bureaucracy – said a VDA spokesperson, explaining why new jobs are being created outside Germany. The study identifies Austria and Italy as the hardest hit, with their value added shrinking by 94% and 90% respectively by 2040. France would lose 73% of its automotive value added.
In absolute terms, Germany faces the largest financial hit: a loss of €54.2 billion. But the situation varies greatly by country. The Fraunhofer Institute considered four scenarios, all pessimistic. Even if plug-in hybrids and range extender vehicles are allowed beyond 2035, the value added would still drop by €90–95 billion. Only if the European market followed the same development path as Asia and North America – without a full combustion ban – could losses be limited to €60 billion.
Poland and central Europe as relative winners
Poland is projected to lose only 5% of its automotive value added – less than €1 billion – making it a clear outlier among major EU economies. The study does not explain this in detail, but it points to a broader trend: production is shifting from high-cost to lower-cost EU countries. Hungary would see an 83% rise in value added (€18.1 billion), the Czech Republic a 30% increase (€4.5 billion), and Spain a 7% gain (€1.2 billion). In contrast, Slovakia and Romania face losses of around three-quarters of their value added even in the baseline scenario.
The Fraunhofer Institute also modelled an optimistic scenario, which assumes deep reforms in the EU: reducing the energy cost gap with the US to around 20%, cutting approval times to three years, and implementing labour market reforms and automation. Under this scenario, the value added of Poland’s automotive industry could grow by 190%, Hungary’s by 300%, and Spain’s by 100%. Germany would gain only 6%. – This scenario is highly unlikely from today’s perspective – noted the report’s authors – as it would require fundamental changes in how the EU operates.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. PTWP
