Diesel prices in Europe jumped 13 percent in a single day, pushing Brent crude above 80 dollars a barrel, as Russia banned exports of the fuel after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. The Polish government, which scrapped its own fuel subsidy program just nine days ago, is now signaling it may reverse that decision.
The spike came after Russia imposed an export ban on diesel, effective until the end of July, to alleviate growing domestic shortages. According to Reuters, Russian seaborne diesel and gasoline exports had already fallen sharply in previous weeks. This hits the global market hard, as Russia was one of the world’s largest diesel suppliers.
In Poland, Orlen raised wholesale diesel prices by 12 groszy per liter on Wednesday, reaching the highest level in over a month. Gasoline 95 also went up by 10 groszy per liter. With the VAT increase already in place since July 1, retail prices could soon exceed 7 złoty per liter.
Government backtracks on CPN withdrawal
The Polish government ended its CPN fuel subsidy program on July 1, citing falling global prices and a need to protect the state budget, which was losing 1.6 billion złoty per month. That decision now looks premature.
– If there is a radical escalation, we will think about protective measures – said a government official. – We are watching the situation, and if indicators related to the conflict in the Middle East show that we need to revisit the package, we will do so.
The government had cut excise and VAT on fuels, but reversed course when prices dropped in May and June. Now, with crude rising again, the same mechanism may be reinstated, though officials have not yet decided whether to bring back the exact same CPN program or design a new one.
NBP raises inflation forecasts, rate cuts delayed
The Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged at 3.75 percent, as expected. More important was the new inflation projection. The central bank now sees CPI at 2.4-3.3 percent this year, up from 1.6-2.9 percent in March. For 2027, the range shifted to 1.5-4.0 percent from 1.1-3.7 percent.
This means the midpoint of the forecast range rose from 2.25 to 2.85 percent for 2026 and from 2.4 to 2.75 percent for 2027. Economists interpreted the new numbers as distinctly hawkish, pushing back expectations of any rate cuts in the coming months.
For mortgage holders, this is bad news. The prospect of cheaper loans has receded again. For the złoty, higher rates could provide some support – the currency dipped to 4.31 per euro on Wednesday.
The International Monetary Fund also released its updated forecasts, predicting Polish GDP growth of 3.4 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2027. The 2027 figure signals a notable slowdown and is more pessimistic than domestic forecasts from NBP and Polish banks, which see growth around 3 percent.
UniCredit nears Commerzbank takeover, implications for Poland
Italy’s UniCredit now holds 47.6 percent of Commerzbank shares and is close to taking control of Germany’s second-largest bank. The Italian lender has been steadily buying shares for two years, despite strong opposition from Commerzbank’s management and German politicians.
From a European perspective, the deal represents a test case for cross-border bank consolidation, which is widely seen as necessary to compete with American giants. But it also has a direct Polish angle. Commerzbank is the controlling shareholder of mBank, one of Poland’s major banks. UniCredit previously owned Pekao SA but sold its stake during the repolonization wave. If the takeover succeeds, UniCredit would return to Poland on a large scale, this time through mBank.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. PAP/Leszek Szymański
