China is not slowing down its coal machine: in the first half of 2026, it started 30 GW of new coal power capacity, 43% more than a year earlier. For Beijing, coal remains a strategic buffer in a world rocked by the US-Iran war and commodity-market turbulence.
While the country retired only 2.7 GW of older coal capacity in the same period, construction began on a further 25.4 GW. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), total planned coal capacity now stands at 274 GW, equivalent to roughly 22% of China’s existing coal fleet.
Electricity generation from coal rose about 3% in the first half of 2026. Renewables are expanding, but wind and solar output has been left unused because of transmission grid bottlenecks.
Expansion with a warning sign
Qi Qin, a China analyst at CREA, cautions that the build-up is not a safety plan but a warning of overcapacity. He notes that coal production capacity keeps growing due to old permits and political safeguards, even though plants run fewer hours and large volumes of clean electricity remain unused.
– The growth of China’s coal sector is a warning of overcapacity, not an energy security plan. Coal production capacity keeps growing because of old permits and political safeguards, even though plants run fewer hours and large volumes of clean electricity remain unused – said Qi Qin, a China analyst at CREA.
Long-term contracts continue to lock in a large share of limited coal-fired electricity demand, leaving less room for clean sources. Analysts expect that in 2026, coal generators will sign annual contracts covering 60-70% of the electricity they delivered in the previous year.
Output and imports in numbers
Between January and June 2026, China produced 2.37 billion tonnes of coal, down 1.7% year on year. June output was 380.88 million tonnes, a 9.7% drop from June 2025. Three provinces dominate: Inner Mongolia mined 116.06 million tonnes, Shanxi 78.01 million tonnes, and Shaanxi 70.55 million tonnes in June. Their combined 264.63 million tonnes was 9.18% lower than a year earlier.
Coal still accounts for about 94% of China’s fossil-fuel reserves, while oil and gas represent only 2.5% and 3.5%. To improve energy security, Beijing uses coal to generate electricity, to produce oil and gas substitutes, and to make chemicals. Modern coal-to-chemical plants are being built mainly in coal-rich central and western China.
China’s coal imports rose to 225.40 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 1.7% year on year. However, thermal coal imports fell 6.2% to 159 million tonnes, with Indonesia the largest supplier at around 85 million tonnes.
What Polish miners say
For Polish trade unionists, China’s approach is a direct lesson. Arkadiusz Siekaniec, deputy chairman of the Miners’ Trade Union in Poland, says China does not waste energy carriers, including coal, and uses both domestic and imported resources. He contrasts this with Poland, where he argues leaving developed deposits untouched for ideological reasons is simple waste.
– In China, there is a policy of not wasting energy carriers, including coal. They use their own resources and imported coal. In our country, leaving developed deposits behind for ideological reasons is ordinary waste – said Arkadiusz Siekaniec, deputy chairman of the Miners’ Trade Union in Poland.
– This whole situation should be an alarm signal and the ultimate argument for us not to base our security on foreign energy raw materials – said Bogusław Hutek, head of the miners’ Solidarity trade union.
Source: WNP.PL, Fot. UnsVision / Shutterstock
