Germany is aiming for Europe’s strongest conventional army, but the biggest rise in troop numbers is planned only after 2029, in the next Bundestag term. Even at the planning stage, Poland is set to field larger land forces and comparable air defence, while Berlin keeps a clear lead in aviation and at sea, says Justyna Gotkowska of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW).
Gotkowska, deputy director of the Warsaw-based OSW and head of its security and defence team, argues that Berlin’s military overhaul owes more to the actions of Donald Trump’s administration than to Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The second Trump administration told European allies that conventional defence was their job and pushed them to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
A €120 billion budget and a slow start
Olaf Scholz announced the Zeitenwende in February 2022, yet the real change came in energy policy, where Russia halted gas deliveries. On defence, Berlin created a €100 billion fund for Bundeswehr modernisation outside the regular federal defence budget, but its effects were limited and the money runs out next year.
The decisive shift followed the 2025 parliamentary elections, when Friedrich Merz of the CDU moved defence spending outside the debt brake. The German military budget is to reach €120 billion this year, or 2.6 per cent of GDP by NATO estimates. The Bundeswehr starts that expansion after two decades of savings, during which it was reshaped into an expeditionary force and its land troops lost the ability to run conventional operations against an opponent such as Russia.
Personnel is the weak spot. Around 20,000 posts stand empty, and Germany dropped military qualification — the mainly medical assessment of young citizens’ fitness for service — after 2011. It became mandatory again only this summer.
Conscription tied to the election calendar
German law envisages a gradual increase in soldiers in active and reserve service, with growth in the active ranks to come after 2029. If volunteers fall short, selective conscription could be introduced, drawing on a relatively narrow group of people, and the Bundestag would have to vote on it every year.
– In my opinion it is very clearly linked to the political calendar, that is to the Bundestag elections. It is de facto handing the next government the difficult decision to introduce selective conscription – said Gotkowska.
– The increase in numbers after 2029 will, in my opinion, be a fairly difficult project to carry through politically – she added.
Money is just as uncertain. Merz’s government has planned steady spending growth up to 2029, but what happens afterwards depends on the next cabinet and its appetite for moving towards 3.5 per cent of GDP.
– I see big question marks that could simply limit the growth of the Bundeswehr or Germany’s ambitions to build the strongest conventional army in Europe – Gotkowska said.
Divisions, missiles and ships
The German plans fit NATO’s regional defence planning: the centre plan covering Germany, Poland and the Baltic states, and the north plan for the Nordic countries and the North Atlantic. Berlin is building an armoured brigade in Lithuania, likely to be finished in 2027, engaging its navy in the North Atlantic, expanding air defence and joining nuclear sharing with F-35 multirole aircraft contracted in the United States.
– I think Poland will have by far the strongest land forces in Europe. We can already see that at the planning stage. Germany will have three operational divisions, two territorial defence divisions and one division with strategic capabilities. Poland is planning six divisions, and that already shows far greater armoured and artillery capabilities – she said.
Air defence is set to be comparable, though Germany, unlike Poland, is investing in the ability to shoot down ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. In aviation and the navy, German plans far exceed Polish ones, thanks to Berlin’s much greater financial resources.
– But will all these plans be fulfilled? We will see, I have some doubts. We now have big investments and plenty of purchases. They will be implemented after 2029, but will all the ambitions be met? I put a question mark there – Gotkowska concluded.
A stronger Germany, a harder balancing act
A larger Bundeswehr means Germany becomes politically stronger in NATO and the European Union, and Poland will need to balance that through cooperation with the United States, France, Britain, the Nordic-Baltic states and even Black Sea countries. German territory is also the main route for American forces and Western European support heading to NATO’s eastern flank.
– We have to think about alternative scenarios, but it will be very difficult if Germany drops out of the equation entirely. I can imagine no direct Bundeswehr involvement in defending the Baltic states or Poland, no Bundestag consent, but Germany’s logistics role for the eastern flank is hugely important – Gotkowska said.
She notes that key posts in several NATO commands in this part of Europe rotate between German and Polish generals and admirals, sometimes with officers from neighbouring countries.
Źródło: WNP.pl, Fot. DVIDSHUB / CC0
